Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-0 Guangzhou R&F – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shijiazhuang Y. J. host Guangzhou R&F at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shijiazhuang Y. J., so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guangzhou R&F stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Guangzhou R&F have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Shijiazhuang Y. J. carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 0, Guangzhou R&F 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Guangzhou R&F winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Shijiazhuang Y. J. in-play and half-time data (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Guangzhou R&F in-play and half-time data (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 56% versus Guangzhou R&F 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44% | Guangzhou R&F 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.18 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.741 / defence 0.926 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.686 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.272. Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Guangzhou R&F bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 33 Guangzhou R&F games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44% | Draw 31% | Guangzhou R&F 25%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Guangzhou R&F 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shijiazhuang Y. J. at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shijiazhuang Y. J. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates are neutral: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Guangzhou R&F 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44% | Draw 31% | Guangzhou R&F 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.18 / Guangzhou R&F 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.741 / def 0.926 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.686 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Shijiazhuang Y. J. (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Guangzhou R&F xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0 - 0 Guangzhou R&F.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 44% chance of winning, Guangzhou R&F a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shijiazhuang Y. J. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou R&F will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou R&F?
Record (2 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0W | Draws 1 | Guangzhou R&F 1W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou R&F in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-W. Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack rating (0.74) and Guangzhou R&F's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guangzhou R&F's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shijiazhuang Y. J. Win
44%
2.26
31%
3.26
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
1.99
0.81
Guangzhou R&F xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
8%
12.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 11.1 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou R&F expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 0.81 for Guangzhou R&F, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 11W 12D 18L record — L-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Shijiazhuang Y. J. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou R&F's form line: 9W 9D 23L from 41 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Guangzhou R&F is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shijiazhuang Y. J. on 1.10 PPG, Guangzhou R&F on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 1.32 PPG from 19 outings (6W 7D 6L).
On the road, Guangzhou R&F have gone 3W 5D 11L from 19 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shijiazhuang Y. J. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou R&F are on 1.05 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Blended
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou R&F in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 11W 12D 18L in their last 41 games (1.10 PPG), while Guangzhou R&F have gone 9W 9D 23L in their last 41 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Guangzhou R&F away?
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.32 PPG; Guangzhou R&F away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou R&F runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Dec 2022, when Shijiazhuang Y. J. won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Guangzhou R&F specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
2
Draws
1
Guangzhou R&F
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou R&F?
From 4 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Guangzhou R&F have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou R&F last play each other?
They last met on 31 December 2022, when Guangzhou R&F 1-4 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Guangzhou R&F are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 47%, Guangzhou R&F 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 32% for Guangzhou R&F.
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 32% of games; Guangzhou R&F in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Guangzhou R&F away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Guangzhou R&F?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent matches and 42% of Guangzhou R&F's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Guangzhou R&F usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 32% of Guangzhou R&F's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou R&F tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Guangzhou R&F in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Guangzhou R&F drew 0-0 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.18 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.81 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Guangzhou R&F landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.74 / defence 0.93 against Guangzhou R&F attack 0.69 / defence 1.21, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44% | Draw 31% | Guangzhou R&F 25%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 44%, Guangzhou R&F 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.10 PPG, Guangzhou R&F 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Guangzhou R&F (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.