Henan Jianye 1-0 Hebei Zhongji – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Henan Jianye at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Henan Jianye vs Hebei Zhongji encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Henan Jianye welcome Hebei Zhongji to Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Henan Jianye — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Henan Jianye, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Henan Jianye at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Henan Jianye are significantly better at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hebei Zhongji stand at 0W 0D 10L from 10 Super League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 3.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Hebei Zhongji, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Hebei Zhongji have posted 0W 0D 10L from 10 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
Henan Jianye carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Henan Jianye in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Hebei Zhongji in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Henan Jianye 42% versus Hebei Zhongji 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Henan Jianye 37% | Hebei Zhongji 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Henan Jianye 2.56 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Henan Jianye attack 1.197 / defence 1.078 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.675 / defence 1.618. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.281. Hebei Zhongji bring a strong defensive rating of 1.618 — this is suppressing Henan Jianye's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Henan Jianye games / 33 Hebei Zhongji games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Henan Jianye 72% | Draw 16% | Hebei Zhongji 11%. Fair-value odds: Henan Jianye 1.39 | Draw 6.25 | Hebei Zhongji 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Henan Jianye (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Henan Jianye at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Henan Jianye 60% | Hebei Zhongji 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Henan Jianye vs Hebei Zhongji | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Henan Jianye 72% | Draw 16% | Hebei Zhongji 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 56% | xG Henan Jianye 2.56 / Hebei Zhongji 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Henan Jianye attack 1.197 / def 1.078 | Hebei Zhongji attack 0.675 / def 1.618 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
Henan Jianye xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Hebei Zhongji xG
56%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Henan Jianye vs Hebei Zhongji kick off?
Henan Jianye vs Hebei Zhongji kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What was the final score in Henan Jianye vs Hebei Zhongji?
Henan Jianye 1 - 0 Hebei Zhongji.
Where is Henan Jianye vs Hebei Zhongji being played?
The match is being played at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium.
What competition is Henan Jianye vs Hebei Zhongji part of?
Henan Jianye vs Hebei Zhongji is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Henan Jianye vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our statistical model gives Henan Jianye a 72% chance of winning, Hebei Zhongji a 11% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Henan Jianye vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Henan Jianye and Hebei Zhongji will score (BTTS).
Will Henan Jianye vs Hebei Zhongji have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Hebei Zhongji?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Henan Jianye and Hebei Zhongji in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Hebei Zhongji (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 3.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Henan Jianye's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Hebei Zhongji's defensive record (1.62x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.56. The same calculation in reverse, Hebei Zhongji's attack versus Henan Jianye's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
72%
1.38
16%
6.09
11%
8.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
3 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
Henan Jianye xG
Total xG
3.49
0.93
Hebei Zhongji xG
1.38
72%
Home win
6.09
16%
Draw
8.83
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
8%
12.91
Win to Nil
28%
3.51
1%
114.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Henan Jianye vs Hebei Zhongji?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Henan Jianye and Hebei Zhongji expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Henan Jianye and 0.93 for Hebei Zhongji, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Henan Jianye vs Hebei Zhongji?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Henan Jianye's recent record stands at 16W 13D 12L from 41 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Henan Jianye is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hebei Zhongji, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 27L across 41 games — 0.68 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Hebei Zhongji is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Henan Jianye by 0.81 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hebei Zhongji heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Henan Jianye have managed 12W 4D 4L from 20 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Henan Jianye are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Hebei Zhongji's away record stands at 2W 3D 15L across 20 trips, a 0.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Henan Jianye come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Henan Jianye are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Hebei Zhongji are on 0.63 scored and 2.15 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Henan Jianye
Blended
Hebei Zhongji
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Henan Jianye and Hebei Zhongji in coming into this match?
Henan Jianye have gone 16W 13D 12L in their last 41 games (1.49 PPG), while Hebei Zhongji have gone 7W 7D 27L in their last 41 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Henan Jianye at home or Hebei Zhongji away?
Henan Jianye's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Henan Jianye at home: 2.00 PPG; Hebei Zhongji away: 0.45 PPG.
Have Henan Jianye or Hebei Zhongji been keeping clean sheets recently?
Henan Jianye have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Hebei Zhongji in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Henan Jianye
0
Draws
0
Hebei Zhongji
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Henan Jianye and Hebei Zhongji?
From 2 meetings on record, Henan Jianye have won 2, Hebei Zhongji have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Henan Jianye and Hebei Zhongji last play each other?
They last met on 30 December 2022, when Hebei Zhongji 0-4 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Henan Jianye and Hebei Zhongji?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Henan Jianye are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Hebei Zhongji are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Henan Jianye 55%, Hebei Zhongji 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Henan Jianye) and 55% (Hebei Zhongji).
On the defensive side: Hebei Zhongji in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Henan Jianye home games / Hebei Zhongji away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Henan Jianye play Hebei Zhongji?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Henan Jianye's recent matches and 40% of Hebei Zhongji's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Henan Jianye vs Hebei Zhongji usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Henan Jianye's recent games and 55% of Hebei Zhongji's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Henan Jianye and Hebei Zhongji tend to score early?
Henan Jianye have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Hebei Zhongji in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Henan Jianye edge out Hebei Zhongji 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Hebei Zhongji 1-0 at Zhengzhou Hanghai Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Henan Jianye 2.56 xG and Hebei Zhongji 0.93 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Henan Jianye fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Hebei Zhongji landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Henan Jianye attack 1.20 / defence 1.08 against Hebei Zhongji attack 0.68 / defence 1.62, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Henan Jianye 72% | Draw 16% | Hebei Zhongji 11%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Henan Jianye 37%, Hebei Zhongji 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Henan Jianye's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hebei Zhongji's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Henan Jianye arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.68. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Hebei Zhongji (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.