Tianjin Teda 3-1 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Wuhan Zall encounter.

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Match Analysis

Tianjin Teda host Wuhan Zall at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Super League (matchday 19). Kick-off is Monday 24 October 2022 at 14:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Wuhan Zall stand at 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

When travelling, Wuhan Zall have posted 3W 0D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

On current form, Tianjin Teda have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Tianjin Teda, 0 for Wuhan Zall and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Aug 2021, ended Tianjin Teda 1–1 Wuhan Zall — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (last 42 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Wuhan Zall in-play tendencies (last 42 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 50% versus Wuhan Zall 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 40% | Wuhan Zall 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.29 xG and Wuhan Zall 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.854 / defence 0.886 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.922 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.278. Data: built from Tianjin Teda's last 34 games and Wuhan Zall's last 34.

Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 42% | Draw 28% | Wuhan Zall 30%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.39 | Draw 3.51 | Wuhan Zall 3.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Tianjin Teda's last 10 home games and Wuhan Zall's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Tianjin Teda 40% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Zall 20% (last 10 away games).

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