Wuhan Zall 3-0 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Wuhan Zall welcome Dalian Aerbin to Dongxihu Sports Centre in Super League (matchday 32). Kick-off is Friday 23 December 2022 at 07:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Wuhan Zall have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Wuhan Zall's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dalian Aerbin stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Dalian Aerbin have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Dalian Aerbin's 2.00 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Wuhan Zall's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Wuhan Zall, 1 for Dalian Aerbin and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Oct 2022, ended Wuhan Zall 1–2 Dalian Aerbin — a Dalian Aerbin win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Wuhan Zall trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Dalian Aerbin trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Zall 58% versus Dalian Aerbin 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Zall 60% | Dalian Aerbin 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 1.03 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 0.698 / defence 1.292 | Dalian Aerbin attack 1.099 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.385. Wuhan Zall's attack rating of 0.698 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Wuhan Zall's defence rating of 1.292 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Dalian Aerbin's projected output up. Data: built from Wuhan Zall's last 45 games and Dalian Aerbin's last 45.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 18% | Draw 24% | Dalian Aerbin 58%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 5.57 | Draw 4.12 | Dalian Aerbin 1.73. The model has a clear lean to Dalian Aerbin (58%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dalian Aerbin as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Wuhan Zall's last 10 home games and Dalian Aerbin's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wuhan Zall 50% (last 10 home games) | Dalian Aerbin 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, matchday 32 | Venue: Dongxihu Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 23 December 2022 at 07:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 18% | Draw 24% | Dalian Aerbin 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Wuhan Zall 1.03 / Dalian Aerbin 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Zall attack 0.698 / def 1.292 | Dalian Aerbin attack 1.099 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Dalian Aerbin (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Wuhan Zall xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Dalian Aerbin xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin FAQs
What time does Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 07:00 UK time on Friday 23 December 2022 at Dongxihu Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin?
Wuhan Zall 3 - 0 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Dongxihu Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin is a Super League fixture (matchday 32) (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Zall a 18% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 58% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dalian Aerbin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Wuhan Zall and Dalian Aerbin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Wuhan Zall's attack at 0.70x the league average against Dalian Aerbin's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dalian Aerbin's attack versus Wuhan Zall's defence, projects 1.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wuhan Zall's last 45 games and Dalian Aerbin's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dalian Aerbin Win
18%
5.57
24%
4.12
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Wuhan Zall xG
Total xG
3.00
1.97
Dalian Aerbin xG
5.57
18%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
14%
7.15
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
3%
39.83
21%
4.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Wuhan Zall and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Wuhan Zall and 1.97 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wuhan Zall's recent record stands at 10W 15D 28L from 53 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Dalian Aerbin, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 24L across 53 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wuhan Zall on 0.85 PPG, Dalian Aerbin on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wuhan Zall have managed 5W 10D 11L from their last 26 home games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dalian Aerbin's away record stands at 8W 5D 13L across their last 26 away games, a 1.12 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Wuhan Zall are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.30 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Zall
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
Wuhan Zall (Home) vs Dalian Aerbin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wuhan Zall
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin Form FAQs
What form are Wuhan Zall and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Wuhan Zall have gone 10W 15D 28L in their last 53 games (0.85 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 18W 11D 24L in their last 53 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Zall at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Dalian Aerbin's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Zall at home: 0.96 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 23 December 2022, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 23 Dec 2022, when Wuhan Zall won Wuhan Zall 3-0 Dalian Aerbin.
Wuhan Zall's record when hosting Dalian Aerbin specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Wuhan Zall
1
Draws
1
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Dalian Aerbin?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Wuhan Zall have won 2, Dalian Aerbin have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Wuhan Zall and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 December 2022: Wuhan Zall 3-0 Dalian Aerbin.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Zall and Dalian Aerbin?
Wuhan Zall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Zall 73%, Dalian Aerbin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Wuhan Zall and 58% for Dalian Aerbin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Zall have failed to score in 27% of games; Dalian Aerbin in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Zall home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wuhan Zall vs Dalian Aerbin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wuhan Zall and Dalian Aerbin matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Wuhan Zall's games and 54% of Dalian Aerbin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Wuhan Zall and Dalian Aerbin matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Wuhan Zall's matches and 58% of Dalian Aerbin's.
Do Wuhan Zall and Dalian Aerbin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Wuhan Zall's recent matches and 65% of Dalian Aerbin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wuhan Zall run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Dalian Aerbin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Zall beat Dalian Aerbin 3-0 at Dongxihu Sports Centre, Regular Season - 32, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Zall 1.03 xG and Dalian Aerbin 1.97 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Wuhan Zall beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dalian Aerbin landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Zall attack 0.70 / defence 1.29 against Dalian Aerbin attack 1.10 / defence 1.04, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Zall 18% | Draw 24% | Dalian Aerbin 58%, with Dalian Aerbin to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Wuhan Zall win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Zall 60%, Dalian Aerbin 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wuhan Zall 0.85 PPG, Dalian Aerbin 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wuhan Zall win broke the near-deadlock. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.