Chengdu Better City 3-1 Wuhan Zall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 74% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wuhan Zall make the trip to Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park to face Chengdu Better City in Super League (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Tuesday 27 December 2022 at 07:00 UK time.
Current Form
Chengdu Better City's record over their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Chengdu Better City at home: 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Wuhan Zall (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Wuhan Zall away from home: 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form favours the hosts. Chengdu Better City's 2.40 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Wuhan Zall's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Chengdu Better City edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2022, ended Chengdu Better City 1–0 Wuhan Zall — a Chengdu Better City win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Chengdu Better City — key trading statistics (last 34 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Wuhan Zall — key trading statistics (last 34 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 44% versus Wuhan Zall 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 38% | Wuhan Zall 74%). Note also that Wuhan Zall surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Chengdu Better City recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 54% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 2.35 xG and Wuhan Zall 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.181 / defence 0.695 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.741 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.360. Wuhan Zall's defence rating of 1.386 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Chengdu Better City's projected output up. Wuhan Zall's attack rating of 0.741 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.70. Chengdu Better City have a tight defence (rating 0.695), which is pulling Wuhan Zall's projected output down. Data: built from Chengdu Better City's last 32 games and Wuhan Zall's last 46.
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 74% | Draw 18% | Wuhan Zall 9%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.36 | Draw 5.70 | Wuhan Zall 11.44. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (74%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chengdu Better City's last 10 home games and Wuhan Zall's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chengdu Better City 40% (last 10 home games) | Wuhan Zall 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall | Competition: Super League, matchday 33 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 December 2022 at 07:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 74% | Draw 18% | Wuhan Zall 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Chengdu Better City 2.35 / Wuhan Zall 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.181 / def 0.695 | Wuhan Zall attack 0.741 / def 1.386 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Wuhan Zall xG
46%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall FAQs
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall kicked off at 07:00 UK time on Tuesday 27 December 2022 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall?
Chengdu Better City 3 - 1 Wuhan Zall.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall is a Super League fixture (matchday 33) (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 74% chance of winning, Wuhan Zall a 9% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Zall will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Chengdu Better City's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Wuhan Zall's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.35. Flip it around — Wuhan Zall's attack (0.74x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from Chengdu Better City's last 32 games and Wuhan Zall's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.1%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
74%
1.36
18%
5.70
9%
11.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
3.05
0.70
Wuhan Zall xG
1.36
74%
Home win
5.70
18%
Draw
11.44
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
10%
10.50
Win to Nil
37%
2.73
1%
120.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Zall expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 0.70 for Wuhan Zall, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Chengdu Better City's recent record stands at 17W 12D 5L from 34 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Wuhan Zall, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 22L across 34 games — 0.82 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chengdu Better City by 1.03 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wuhan Zall heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Chengdu Better City have managed 7W 8D 1L from their last 16 home games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wuhan Zall's away record stands at 4W 0D 12L across their last 16 away games, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Wuhan Zall are on 1.00 scored and 1.97 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Wuhan Zall
Current Season
Chengdu Better City (Home) vs Wuhan Zall (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Wuhan Zall
Current Season
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall Form FAQs
What form are Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Zall in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 17W 12D 5L in their last 34 games (1.85 PPG), while Wuhan Zall have gone 8W 4D 22L in their last 34 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Wuhan Zall away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 1.81 PPG; Wuhan Zall away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Wuhan Zall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Wuhan Zall in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 27 December 2022, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Chengdu Better City
0
Draws
0
Wuhan Zall
Recent Meetings
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Zall?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Chengdu Better City have won 2, Wuhan Zall have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Zall last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 December 2022: Chengdu Better City 3-1 Wuhan Zall.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Zall?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 56%, Wuhan Zall 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chengdu Better City) and 62% (Wuhan Zall). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Wuhan Zall in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Wuhan Zall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Wuhan Zall Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Zall matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 38% of Wuhan Zall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Zall matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 62% of Wuhan Zall's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Wuhan Zall matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 81% of Wuhan Zall's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chengdu Better City cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Wuhan Zall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Wuhan Zall 3-1 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 2.35 xG and Wuhan Zall 0.70 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.18 / defence 0.69 against Wuhan Zall attack 0.74 / defence 1.39, drawn from 32/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 74% | Draw 18% | Wuhan Zall 9%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 74%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 38%, Wuhan Zall 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.