Tianjin Teda 0-3 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mission Hills Football Base Stadium plays host to Tianjin Teda versus Dalian Aerbin in Super League, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Tuesday 27 December 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tianjin Teda have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dalian Aerbin (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Dalian Aerbin have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Tianjin Teda, 1.70 for Dalian Aerbin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Tianjin Teda, 2 for Dalian Aerbin and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Tianjin Teda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Dalian Aerbin half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 51% versus Dalian Aerbin 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 45% | Dalian Aerbin 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.65 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.993 / defence 0.706 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.978 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.392. Tianjin Teda's defence rating of 0.706 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Tianjin Teda games / 46 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 53% | Draw 27% | Dalian Aerbin 21%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Dalian Aerbin 4.76. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 50% | Dalian Aerbin 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Dec 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 53% | Draw 27% | Dalian Aerbin 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.65 / Dalian Aerbin 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.993 / def 0.706 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.978 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Dalian Aerbin xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 12:00 on Tuesday 27 December 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin?
Tianjin Teda 0 - 3 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 53% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (3 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 0 | Dalian Aerbin 2W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Dalian Aerbin in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.99x the league average against Dalian Aerbin's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dalian Aerbin's attack (0.98x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.75
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.61
0.96
Dalian Aerbin xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
4%
25.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 0.96 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 19W 13D 21L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Dalian Aerbin's form line: 18W 11D 24L from 53 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Tianjin Teda against 1.23 for Dalian Aerbin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.38 PPG from 26 outings (10W 6D 10L).
On the road, Dalian Aerbin have gone 8W 5D 13L from 26 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.30 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Dalian Aerbin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 19W 13D 21L in their last 53 games (1.32 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 18W 11D 24L in their last 53 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.38 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Dalian Aerbin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Dalian Aerbin in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Tianjin Teda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dalian Aerbin won 0-3 on 27 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
0
Draws
3
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Dalian Aerbin?
From 6 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Dalian Aerbin have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2023, when Tianjin Teda 1-0 Dalian Aerbin.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 58%, Dalian Aerbin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Tianjin Teda) and 62% (Dalian Aerbin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Dalian Aerbin in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Dalian Aerbin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Tianjin Teda's games and 54% of Dalian Aerbin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Tianjin Teda's matches and 62% of Dalian Aerbin's.
Do Tianjin Teda and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dalian Aerbin run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Tianjin Teda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Aerbin beat Tianjin Teda 0-3 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.65 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.96 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Tianjin Teda fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Dalian Aerbin outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.99 / defence 0.71 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.98 / defence 1.17, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 53% | Draw 27% | Dalian Aerbin 21%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Dalian Aerbin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 45%, Dalian Aerbin 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.32 PPG, Dalian Aerbin 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dalian Aerbin win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.