Wuhan Zall 0-3 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Tianjin Teda (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Wuhan Zall face Tianjin Teda.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Tianjin Teda travel to Dongxihu Sports Centre to take on Wuhan Zall. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 14 December 2022, 09:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Wuhan Zall — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Wuhan Zall's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Dongxihu Sports Centre this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tianjin Teda stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Tianjin Teda away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Tianjin Teda are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Wuhan Zall, 2 for Tianjin Teda and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2022, ended 1–3 with Tianjin Teda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wuhan Zall in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Zall 60% versus Tianjin Teda 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Zall 60% | Tianjin Teda 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 1.15 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 0.783 / defence 1.193 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.997 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.412. Wuhan Zall's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Wuhan Zall games / 44 Tianjin Teda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 25% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 49%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Tianjin Teda 2.04. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wuhan Zall 60% | Tianjin Teda 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Dongxihu Sports Centre • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 Dec 2022, 09:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 25% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Wuhan Zall 1.15 / Tianjin Teda 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Zall attack 0.783 / def 1.193 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.997 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Wuhan Zall xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Tianjin Teda xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 09:00 on Wednesday 14 December 2022 at Dongxihu Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda?
Wuhan Zall 0 - 3 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Dongxihu Sports Centre.
What competition is Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Zall a 25% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Wuhan Zall and Tianjin Teda will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Tianjin Teda?
Record (3 meetings): Wuhan Zall 0W | Draws 1 | Tianjin Teda 2W.
What form are Wuhan Zall and Tianjin Teda in?
Wuhan Zall (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wuhan Zall's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Tianjin Teda's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Tianjin Teda's attack versus Wuhan Zall's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
25%
4.02
26%
3.78
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Wuhan Zall xG
Total xG
2.83
1.68
Tianjin Teda xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
19%
5.36
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
5%
21.53
15%
6.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Wuhan Zall and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Wuhan Zall and 1.68 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wuhan Zall's recent record stands at 10W 15D 27L from 52 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 21L across 52 games — 1.29 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tianjin Teda by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wuhan Zall heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wuhan Zall have managed 5W 10D 10L from 25 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 8W 7D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Wuhan Zall are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.15 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Zall
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Zall and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Wuhan Zall have gone 10W 15D 27L in their last 52 games (0.87 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 18W 13D 21L in their last 52 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Zall at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Tianjin Teda's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Zall at home: 1.00 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Wuhan Zall or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Zall have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Tianjin Teda have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Dec 2022, when Tianjin Teda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wuhan Zall's record when hosting Tianjin Teda specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Wuhan Zall
1
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Zall and Tianjin Teda?
From 4 meetings on record, Wuhan Zall have won 0, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Zall and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2022, when Wuhan Zall 0-3 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Zall and Tianjin Teda?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wuhan Zall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Zall 76%, Tianjin Teda 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Wuhan Zall) and 32% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda in 32%; Tianjin Teda in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Zall home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Zall play Tianjin Teda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Wuhan Zall's games and 44% of Tianjin Teda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Wuhan Zall's recent games and 32% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Zall and Tianjin Teda tend to score early?
Wuhan Zall have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Tianjin Teda in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Tianjin Teda run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Wuhan Zall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Wuhan Zall 0-3 at Dongxihu Sports Centre, Regular Season - 31, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Zall 1.15 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.68 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Wuhan Zall fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Tianjin Teda outscored their 1.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Zall attack 0.78 / defence 1.19 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Zall 25% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 49%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Zall 60%, Tianjin Teda 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Zall's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Wuhan Zall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.