Wuhan Zall 0-3 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Zall vs Tianjin Teda encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Tianjin Teda travel to Dongxihu Sports Centre to take on Wuhan Zall in Super League (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 14 December 2022 at 09:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Wuhan Zall — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Wuhan Zall's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 home games (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Tianjin Teda stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Tianjin Teda away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Tianjin Teda are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Wuhan Zall have won 0, Tianjin Teda 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2022, ended Wuhan Zall 1–3 Tianjin Teda — a Tianjin Teda win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Wuhan Zall in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Tianjin Teda in-play tendencies (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Zall 60% versus Tianjin Teda 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Zall 60% | Tianjin Teda 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Zall 1.15 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Zall attack 0.783 / defence 1.193 | Tianjin Teda attack 0.997 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.412. Wuhan Zall's attack rating of 0.783 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Data: built from Wuhan Zall's last 44 games and Tianjin Teda's last 44.

Result probabilities: Wuhan Zall 25% | Draw 26% | Tianjin Teda 49%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Zall 4.02 | Draw 3.78 | Tianjin Teda 2.06. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Wuhan Zall's last 10 home games and Tianjin Teda's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wuhan Zall 60% (last 10 home games) | Tianjin Teda 50% (last 10 away games).

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