Wuhan Three Towns 0-0 Changchun Yatai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Changchun Yatai travel to Wuhan Sports Center Stadium to take on Wuhan Three Towns in Super League (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 13:35 UK time.
Form Guide
Wuhan Three Towns — last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Wuhan Three Towns at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Changchun Yatai stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Wuhan Three Towns are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, Changchun Yatai 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Wuhan Three Towns 4–3 Changchun Yatai — a Wuhan Three Towns win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Wuhan Three Towns in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Changchun Yatai in-play tendencies (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 58% versus Changchun Yatai 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 64% | Changchun Yatai 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.44 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.918 / defence 1.107 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.871 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.359. Data: built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 36 games and Changchun Yatai's last 36.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 40% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 34%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 2.51 | Draw 3.83 | Changchun Yatai 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Three Towns are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wuhan Three Towns offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 4.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Wuhan Three Towns 50% (last 10 home games) | Changchun Yatai 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai | Competition: Super League, matchday 7 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 40% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.44 / Changchun Yatai 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.918 / def 1.107 | Changchun Yatai attack 0.871 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Changchun Yatai xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai FAQs
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai?
Wuhan Three Towns 0 - 0 Changchun Yatai.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai is a Super League fixture (matchday 7) (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 40% chance of winning, Changchun Yatai a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Changchun Yatai's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Changchun Yatai's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 36 games and Changchun Yatai's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
40%
2.51
26%
3.83
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.75
1.31
Changchun Yatai xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
8%
12.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.31 for Changchun Yatai, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wuhan Three Towns come into this having played 64 games, going 39W 12D 13L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Changchun Yatai sit at 1.30 PPG from 64 outings (21W 20D 23L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Wuhan Three Towns carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Changchun Yatai — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Wuhan Three Towns's home form reads 19W 6D 7L across their last 32 home games, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Changchun Yatai have taken 1.25 points per game from their last 32 away games (10W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Changchun Yatai are on 1.45 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns (Home) vs Changchun Yatai (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai Form FAQs
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 39W 12D 13L in their last 64 games (2.02 PPG), while Changchun Yatai have gone 21W 20D 23L in their last 64 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Changchun Yatai away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.97 PPG; Changchun Yatai away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Changchun Yatai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Changchun Yatai in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 3 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Wuhan Three Towns's record when hosting Changchun Yatai specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Wuhan Three Towns
3
Draws
2
Changchun Yatai
Recent Meetings
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, Changchun Yatai have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 August 2025: Wuhan Three Towns 0-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 53%, Changchun Yatai 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 56% (Changchun Yatai). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Changchun Yatai in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Changchun Yatai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Changchun Yatai Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 53% of Changchun Yatai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 56% of Changchun Yatai's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 62% of Changchun Yatai's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Wuhan Three Towns's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns and Changchun Yatai finished level at 0-0 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.44 xG and Changchun Yatai 1.31 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Changchun Yatai landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.92 / defence 1.11 against Changchun Yatai attack 0.87 / defence 1.12, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 40% | Draw 26% | Changchun Yatai 34%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 64%, Changchun Yatai 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Wuhan Three Towns (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.