Chengdu Better City 3-1 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chengdu Better City at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chengdu Better City face Sichuan Jiuniu.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu meet at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park in Super League (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 April 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Current Form
Chengdu Better City's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Chengdu Better City's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.45 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.226 / defence 0.652 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.930 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.356. Chengdu Better City have a tight defence (rating 0.652), which is pulling Sichuan Jiuniu's projected output down. Data: built from Chengdu Better City's last 36 games and Sichuan Jiuniu's last 6.
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 52% | Draw 28% | Sichuan Jiuniu 21%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.94 | Draw 3.63 | Sichuan Jiuniu 4.78. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chengdu Better City are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, matchday 7 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 52% | Draw 28% | Sichuan Jiuniu 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Chengdu Better City 1.45 / Sichuan Jiuniu 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.226 / def 0.652 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.930 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu FAQs
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Chengdu Better City 3 - 1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Super League fixture (matchday 7) (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 52% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Chengdu Better City's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Sichuan Jiuniu's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.93x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (0.65x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from Chengdu Better City's last 36 games and Sichuan Jiuniu's last 6 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
52%
1.94
28%
3.63
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.27
0.82
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
23%
4.41
5%
20.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 0.82 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Pre-Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Chengdu Better City (Home) vs Sichuan Jiuniu (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chengdu Better City
Pre-Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 27 June 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Chengdu Better City have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chengdu Better City won Chengdu Better City 5-0 Sichuan Jiuniu on 25 Jun 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chengdu Better City have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Chengdu Better City
1
Draws
0
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Chengdu Better City vs Sichuan Jiuniu H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Chengdu Better City have won 5, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 June 2026: Sichuan Jiuniu 2-3 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Chengdu Better City cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sichuan Jiuniu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Sichuan Jiuniu 3-1 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.45 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.82 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Chengdu Better City beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.23 / defence 0.65 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.93 / defence 0.86, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 52% | Draw 28% | Sichuan Jiuniu 21%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.