Wuhan Three Towns 2-1 Tianjin Teda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Wuhan Three Towns face Tianjin Teda.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tianjin Teda make the trip to Wuhan Sports Center Stadium to face Wuhan Three Towns in Super League (matchday 8). The match kicks off on Friday 26 April 2024 at 13:35 UK time.
Form
Wuhan Three Towns (all games): 7W 0D 3L across their last 10 — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Wuhan Three Towns's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Tianjin Teda's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Tianjin Teda's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Wuhan Three Towns against 1.80 for Tianjin Teda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Wuhan Three Towns, 1 for Tianjin Teda and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Wuhan Three Towns 0–1 Tianjin Teda — a Tianjin Teda win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Wuhan Three Towns goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Tianjin Teda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 59% versus Tianjin Teda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wuhan Three Towns 64% | Tianjin Teda 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 1.05 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.796 / defence 0.981 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.281 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.358. Wuhan Three Towns's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Tianjin Teda have an above-average attack rating of 1.281, which lifts their away xG to 1.71. Data: built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 37 games and Tianjin Teda's last 37.
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 23% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 52%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 4.34 | Draw 4.06 | Tianjin Teda 1.91. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wuhan Three Towns 50% (last 10 home games) | Tianjin Teda 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda | Competition: Super League, matchday 8 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 26 April 2024 at 13:35 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 23% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Wuhan Three Towns 1.05 / Tianjin Teda 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.796 / def 0.981 | Tianjin Teda attack 1.281 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Tianjin Teda xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda FAQs
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda kicked off at 13:35 UK time on Friday 26 April 2024 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Wuhan Three Towns 2 - 1 Tianjin Teda.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda is a Super League fixture (matchday 8) (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 23% chance of winning, Tianjin Teda a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wuhan Three Towns's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Tianjin Teda's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Tianjin Teda's attack (1.28x) against Wuhan Three Towns's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from Wuhan Three Towns's last 37 games and Tianjin Teda's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
23%
4.34
25%
4.06
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
2.76
1.71
Tianjin Teda xG
4.34
23%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
18%
5.51
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
4%
23.91
18%
5.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.71 for Tianjin Teda, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wuhan Three Towns's recent record stands at 38W 12D 13L from 63 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Tianjin Teda, meanwhile, have gone 25W 22D 16L across 63 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wuhan Three Towns by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tianjin Teda heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Wuhan Three Towns have managed 18W 6D 7L from their last 31 home games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tianjin Teda's away record stands at 13W 8D 10L across their last 31 away games, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 2.19 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Tianjin Teda are on 1.35 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Wuhan Three Towns (Home) vs Tianjin Teda (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wuhan Three Towns
Current Season
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda Form FAQs
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 38W 12D 13L in their last 63 games (2.00 PPG), while Tianjin Teda have gone 25W 22D 16L in their last 63 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Tianjin Teda away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 1.94 PPG; Tianjin Teda away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Tianjin Teda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Tianjin Teda in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tianjin Teda won Tianjin Teda 4-0 Wuhan Three Towns on 14 Sep 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Tianjin Teda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Wuhan Three Towns
3
Draws
3
Tianjin Teda
Recent Meetings
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Wuhan Three Towns have won 4, Tianjin Teda have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Wuhan Three Towns 0-0 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 55%, Tianjin Teda 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Wuhan Three Towns) and 39% (Tianjin Teda).
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Tianjin Teda in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Tianjin Teda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wuhan Three Towns vs Tianjin Teda Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 52% of Tianjin Teda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent games and 39% of Tianjin Teda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Tianjin Teda matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Wuhan Three Towns's recent matches and 73% of Tianjin Teda's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wuhan Three Towns defy the odds to beat Tianjin Teda 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Tianjin Teda 2-1 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 1.05 xG and Tianjin Teda 1.71 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 0.80 / defence 0.98 against Tianjin Teda attack 1.28 / defence 0.96, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 23% | Draw 25% | Tianjin Teda 52%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Wuhan Three Towns win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 64%, Tianjin Teda 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.54. That form edge translated into the three points. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.