Sichuan Jiuniu 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu host Wuhan Three Towns at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.45 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.829 / defence 1.365 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.120 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.377. Wuhan Three Towns bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing Sichuan Jiuniu's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Sichuan Jiuniu games / 35 Wuhan Three Towns games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 26% | Draw 21% | Wuhan Three Towns 53%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 3.85 | Draw 4.76 | Wuhan Three Towns 1.89. Wuhan Three Towns hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 2.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Three Towns are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean.
Poisson projects 3.55 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 26% | Draw 21% | Wuhan Three Towns 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 67% | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.45 / Wuhan Three Towns 2.11 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.829 / def 1.365 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.120 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
2.11
Wuhan Three Towns xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Sichuan Jiuniu 1 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 26% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 53% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns will score (BTTS).
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Wuhan Three Towns away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sichuan Jiuniu's attack rating (0.83) and Wuhan Three Towns's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 2.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
26%
3.81
21%
4.77
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.55
2.11
Wuhan Three Towns xG
3.81
26%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
12%
8.22
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
3%
31.27
12%
8.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 2.11 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Aug 2024, when Wuhan Three Towns won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sichuan Jiuniu's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
1
Draws
3
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns?
From 6 meetings on record, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Wuhan Three Towns 2-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns finished level at 1-1 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.45 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 2.11 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.83 / defence 1.36 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.12 / defence 1.31, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 26% | Draw 21% | Wuhan Three Towns 53%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.