Sichuan Jiuniu 1-1 Wuhan Three Towns – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wuhan Three Towns at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sichuan Jiuniu face Wuhan Three Towns.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu host Wuhan Three Towns at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium in Super League (matchday 6). Kick-off is Sunday 14 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Wuhan Three Towns — last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Wuhan Three Towns have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sichuan Jiuniu 1.45 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 2.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.829 / defence 1.365 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.120 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.377. Wuhan Three Towns's defence rating of 1.315 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sichuan Jiuniu's projected output up. Sichuan Jiuniu's defence rating of 1.365 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Wuhan Three Towns's projected output up. Data: built from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 5 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 35.
Result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 26% | Draw 21% | Wuhan Three Towns 53%. Fair-value odds: Sichuan Jiuniu 3.81 | Draw 4.77 | Wuhan Three Towns 1.90. Wuhan Three Towns hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.45 / 2.11) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wuhan Three Towns are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean.
Poisson projects 3.55 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns | Competition: Super League, matchday 6 | Venue: Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sichuan Jiuniu 26% | Draw 21% | Wuhan Three Towns 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Sichuan Jiuniu 1.45 / Wuhan Three Towns 2.11 • Poisson strength factors: Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.829 / def 1.365 | Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.120 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Expected Goals
2.11
Wuhan Three Towns xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns FAQs
What time does Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns kick off?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What was the final score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Sichuan Jiuniu 1 - 1 Wuhan Three Towns.
Where is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns being played?
The match is being played at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium.
What competition is Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns part of?
Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns is a Super League fixture (matchday 6) (China).
Who is favourite to win Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our statistical model gives Sichuan Jiuniu a 26% chance of winning, Wuhan Three Towns a 53% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sichuan Jiuniu's attack rating (0.83) and Wuhan Three Towns's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wuhan Three Towns's attack versus Sichuan Jiuniu's defence, projects 2.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sichuan Jiuniu's last 5 games and Wuhan Three Towns's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
26%
3.81
21%
4.77
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 2
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
Total xG
3.55
2.11
Wuhan Three Towns xG
3.81
26%
Home win
4.77
21%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
12%
8.22
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
3%
31.27
12%
8.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Sichuan Jiuniu and 2.11 for Wuhan Three Towns, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Sichuan Jiuniu (Home) vs Wuhan Three Towns (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
Wuhan Three Towns
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 18 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Aug 2024, when Wuhan Three Towns won Wuhan Three Towns 4-1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Sichuan Jiuniu's record when hosting Wuhan Three Towns specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
1
Draws
3
Wuhan Three Towns
Recent Meetings
❓ Sichuan Jiuniu vs Wuhan Three Towns H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 July 2026: Wuhan Three Towns 2-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns?
Wuhan Three Towns have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sichuan Jiuniu home games / Wuhan Three Towns away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sichuan Jiuniu and Wuhan Three Towns finished level at 1-1 at Shenzhen Bao'an Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sichuan Jiuniu 1.45 xG and Wuhan Three Towns 2.11 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.83 / defence 1.36 against Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.12 / defence 1.31, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sichuan Jiuniu 26% | Draw 21% | Wuhan Three Towns 53%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.