Hangzhou Greentown 1-0 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hangzhou Greentown at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sichuan Jiuniu make the trip to Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium to face Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 3 March 2024 at 11:35 UTC.
Form
Hangzhou Greentown (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 2.11 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.125 / defence 0.929 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.248. Data: 30 Hangzhou Greentown games / 0 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 62% | Draw 23% | Sichuan Jiuniu 15%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Sichuan Jiuniu 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Hangzhou Greentown (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hangzhou Greentown are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Mar 2024, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 62% | Draw 23% | Sichuan Jiuniu 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 2.11 / Sichuan Jiuniu 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.125 / def 0.929 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 11:35 on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Hangzhou Greentown 1 - 0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 62% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Hangzhou Greentown home split: 2.30 PPG from 10 | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hangzhou Greentown's attack rating (1.12) and Sichuan Jiuniu's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.85x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
62%
1.62
23%
4.31
15%
6.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
3.10
0.98
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
6.62
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
12%
8.27
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
2%
54.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 0.98 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Pre-Season
Sichuan Jiuniu
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since March 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Hangzhou Greentown have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hangzhou Greentown won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Hangzhou Greentown
0
Draws
1
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 5 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 4, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Hangzhou Greentown 2-1 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Hangzhou Greentown have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Hangzhou Greentown edge out Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0 at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 2.11 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.98 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hangzhou Greentown fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sichuan Jiuniu landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.12 / defence 0.93 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 62% | Draw 23% | Sichuan Jiuniu 15%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.