Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-2 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beijing Guoan at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Shijiazhuang Y. J. welcome Beijing Guoan to Cangzhou Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 07:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s home record at Cangzhou Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Shijiazhuang Y. J. are significantly better at Cangzhou Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Beijing Guoan — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Beijing Guoan 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 1–5 with Beijing Guoan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Shijiazhuang Y. J. trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Beijing Guoan trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 55% versus Beijing Guoan 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Beijing Guoan 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.35 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.886 / defence 0.995 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.071 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.276. Data: 30 Shijiazhuang Y. J. games / 30 Beijing Guoan games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 36%. Fair-value odds: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Beijing Guoan 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50% | Beijing Guoan 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Cangzhou Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.35 / Beijing Guoan 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.886 / def 0.995 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.071 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.698 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Beijing Guoan xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Cangzhou Stadium.
What was the final score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0 - 2 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Cangzhou Stadium.
What competition is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Shijiazhuang Y. J. a 36% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan?
Record (4 meetings): Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1W | Draws 1 | Beijing Guoan 2W.
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan in?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s attack rating (0.89) and Beijing Guoan's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Beijing Guoan Win
36%
2.80
28%
3.59
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Shijiazhuang Y. J. xG
Total xG
2.71
1.36
Beijing Guoan xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
9%
10.90
9%
10.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Shijiazhuang Y. J. and 1.36 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 19W 18D 27L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Beijing Guoan's form line: 31W 16D 17L from 64 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Beijing Guoan are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have posted 1.12 PPG from 32 outings (8W 12D 12L).
On the road, Beijing Guoan have gone 15W 8D 9L from 32 away games — 1.66 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beijing Guoan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.72 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have gone 19W 18D 27L in their last 64 games (1.17 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 31W 16D 17L in their last 64 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shijiazhuang Y. J. at home: 1.12 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 June 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 May 2023, when Beijing Guoan won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Shijiazhuang Y. J.
1
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan?
From 6 meetings on record, Shijiazhuang Y. J. have won 1, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2024, when Beijing Guoan 4-0 Shijiazhuang Y. J..
Who has won more matches between Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shijiazhuang Y. J. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%, Beijing Guoan 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Shijiazhuang Y. J.) and 66% (Beijing Guoan).
On the defensive side: Shijiazhuang Y. J. have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shijiazhuang Y. J. home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shijiazhuang Y. J. play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s games and 62% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shijiazhuang Y. J. vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s recent games and 66% of Beijing Guoan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shijiazhuang Y. J. and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Shijiazhuang Y. J. have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beijing Guoan cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Shijiazhuang Y. J..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Shijiazhuang Y. J. 0-2 at Cangzhou Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shijiazhuang Y. J. 1.35 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.36 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Shijiazhuang Y. J. fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shijiazhuang Y. J. attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.07 / defence 0.90, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shijiazhuang Y. J. 36% | Draw 28% | Beijing Guoan 36%, with Shijiazhuang Y. J. to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shijiazhuang Y. J. 50%, Beijing Guoan 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shijiazhuang Y. J.'s trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Shijiazhuang Y. J. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.