Hangzhou Greentown 0-0 SHANGHAI SIPG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hangzhou Greentown at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SHANGHAI SIPG make the trip to Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium to face Hangzhou Greentown in Super League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 11:35 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hangzhou Greentown have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Hangzhou Greentown's home record at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
SHANGHAI SIPG (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Hangzhou Greentown's favour (2.40 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Hangzhou Greentown 2W, SHANGHAI SIPG 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 4–3 with Hangzhou Greentown winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hangzhou Greentown goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
SHANGHAI SIPG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hangzhou Greentown 56% versus SHANGHAI SIPG 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hangzhou Greentown 56% | SHANGHAI SIPG 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hangzhou Greentown 1.46 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.056 / defence 0.824 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.158 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.206. Data: 31 Hangzhou Greentown games / 31 SHANGHAI SIPG games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 44% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 30%. Fair-value odds: Hangzhou Greentown 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | SHANGHAI SIPG 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hangzhou Greentown at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hangzhou Greentown if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hangzhou Greentown 50% | SHANGHAI SIPG 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hangzhou Greentown 44% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Hangzhou Greentown 1.46 / SHANGHAI SIPG 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.056 / def 0.824 | SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.158 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Hangzhou Greentown (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Expected Goals
1.15
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG kick off?
Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Hangzhou Greentown 0 - 0 SHANGHAI SIPG.
Where is Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG being played?
The match is being played at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG part of?
Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our statistical model gives Hangzhou Greentown a 44% chance of winning, SHANGHAI SIPG a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hangzhou Greentown the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG will score (BTTS).
Will Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG?
Record (4 meetings): Hangzhou Greentown 2W | Draws 1 | SHANGHAI SIPG 1W.
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG in?
Hangzhou Greentown (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. SHANGHAI SIPG (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hangzhou Greentown's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against SHANGHAI SIPG's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — SHANGHAI SIPG's attack (1.16x) against Hangzhou Greentown's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hangzhou Greentown Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.84
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Hangzhou Greentown xG
Total xG
2.61
1.15
SHANGHAI SIPG xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
7%
14.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Hangzhou Greentown and 1.15 for SHANGHAI SIPG, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Hangzhou Greentown have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 33W 18D 12L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
SHANGHAI SIPG's form line: 39W 11D 13L from 63 games, 2.03 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.86 PPG for Hangzhou Greentown against 2.03 for SHANGHAI SIPG. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hangzhou Greentown have posted 2.03 PPG from 31 outings (19W 6D 6L).
On the road, SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 20W 5D 6L from 31 away games — 2.10 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Hangzhou Greentown are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; SHANGHAI SIPG are on 1.84 scored and 0.86 conceded. Hangzhou Greentown's scoring rate against SHANGHAI SIPG's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: SHANGHAI SIPG in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hangzhou Greentown
Current Season
SHANGHAI SIPG
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG in coming into this match?
Hangzhou Greentown have gone 33W 18D 12L in their last 63 games (1.86 PPG), while SHANGHAI SIPG have gone 39W 11D 13L in their last 63 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hangzhou Greentown at home or SHANGHAI SIPG away?
SHANGHAI SIPG's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hangzhou Greentown at home: 2.03 PPG; SHANGHAI SIPG away: 2.10 PPG.
Have Hangzhou Greentown or SHANGHAI SIPG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hangzhou Greentown have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, SHANGHAI SIPG in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SHANGHAI SIPG won 3-0 on 31 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hangzhou Greentown have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SHANGHAI SIPG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Hangzhou Greentown
4
Draws
3
SHANGHAI SIPG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG?
From 9 meetings on record, Hangzhou Greentown have won 2, SHANGHAI SIPG have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when SHANGHAI SIPG 2-2 Hangzhou Greentown.
Who has won more matches between Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG?
SHANGHAI SIPG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hangzhou Greentown are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
SHANGHAI SIPG are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hangzhou Greentown 39%, SHANGHAI SIPG 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Hangzhou Greentown) and 58% (SHANGHAI SIPG).
On the defensive side: Hangzhou Greentown keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; SHANGHAI SIPG in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hangzhou Greentown home games / SHANGHAI SIPG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hangzhou Greentown play SHANGHAI SIPG?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent matches and 48% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hangzhou Greentown vs SHANGHAI SIPG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Hangzhou Greentown's recent games and 58% of SHANGHAI SIPG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG tend to score early?
Hangzhou Greentown have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, SHANGHAI SIPG in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hangzhou Greentown's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hangzhou Greentown and SHANGHAI SIPG finished level at 0-0 at Yellow Dragon Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hangzhou Greentown 1.46 xG and SHANGHAI SIPG 1.15 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hangzhou Greentown fell 1.5 short of their projected output. SHANGHAI SIPG landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.06 / defence 0.82 against SHANGHAI SIPG attack 1.16 / defence 0.94, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hangzhou Greentown 44% | Draw 26% | SHANGHAI SIPG 30%, with Hangzhou Greentown to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hangzhou Greentown 56%, SHANGHAI SIPG 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hangzhou Greentown's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
SHANGHAI SIPG's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hangzhou Greentown 1.86 PPG, SHANGHAI SIPG 2.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hangzhou Greentown (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward. SHANGHAI SIPG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.