Chengdu Better City 2-0 Qingdao Jonoon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 1 as Chengdu Better City welcome Qingdao Jonoon to Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 11:35 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Chengdu Better City have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Chengdu Better City's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Qingdao Jonoon — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League this season, Qingdao Jonoon have posted 0W 3D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Chengdu Better City carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Chengdu Better City's 30% rate and Qingdao Jonoon's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Chengdu Better City, 1 for Qingdao Jonoon and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2023, ended 2–3 with Qingdao Jonoon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Chengdu Better City in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Qingdao Jonoon in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 53% versus Qingdao Jonoon 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 57% | Qingdao Jonoon 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 1.68 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.080 / defence 0.909 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.878 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.290. Data: 30 Chengdu Better City games / 30 Qingdao Jonoon games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 51% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Jonoon 21%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Qingdao Jonoon 4.76. Chengdu Better City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chengdu Better City at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chengdu Better City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Chengdu Better City 30% | Qingdao Jonoon 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 11:35 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 51% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Jonoon 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Chengdu Better City 1.68 / Qingdao Jonoon 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.080 / def 0.909 | Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.878 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Qingdao Jonoon xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon kicked off at 11:35 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Chengdu Better City 2 - 0 Qingdao Jonoon.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon being played?
The match is being played at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 51% chance of winning, Qingdao Jonoon a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon?
Record (2 meetings): Chengdu Better City 1W | Draws 0 | Qingdao Jonoon 1W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Qingdao Jonoon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chengdu Better City's attack rating (1.08) and Qingdao Jonoon's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Qingdao Jonoon's attack versus Chengdu Better City's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
51%
1.97
28%
3.58
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
2.71
1.03
Qingdao Jonoon xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
4%
24.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.5 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 1.03 for Qingdao Jonoon, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chengdu Better City come into this having played 30 games, going 15W 8D 7L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Qingdao Jonoon sit at 0.93 PPG from 30 outings (7W 7D 16L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Chengdu Better City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Qingdao Jonoon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Chengdu Better City's home form reads 9W 3D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Qingdao Jonoon have taken 0.27 points per game from 15 outings (0W 4D 11L). That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Qingdao Jonoon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Qingdao Jonoon are on 1.13 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Current Season
Qingdao Jonoon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 15W 8D 7L in their last 30 games (1.77 PPG), while Qingdao Jonoon have gone 7W 7D 16L in their last 30 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Qingdao Jonoon away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 2.00 PPG; Qingdao Jonoon away: 0.27 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Qingdao Jonoon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Qingdao Jonoon in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jun 2024, when Chengdu Better City won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chengdu Better City's record when hosting Qingdao Jonoon specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Chengdu Better City
2
Draws
1
Qingdao Jonoon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon?
From 8 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 5, Qingdao Jonoon have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Qingdao Jonoon 1-1 Chengdu Better City.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Qingdao Jonoon see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 53%, Qingdao Jonoon 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Chengdu Better City) and 33% (Qingdao Jonoon).
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Qingdao Jonoon in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Qingdao Jonoon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Qingdao Jonoon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Chengdu Better City's recent matches and 40% of Qingdao Jonoon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Qingdao Jonoon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Chengdu Better City's recent games and 33% of Qingdao Jonoon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chengdu Better City and Qingdao Jonoon tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Qingdao Jonoon in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chengdu Better City cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Qingdao Jonoon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Qingdao Jonoon 2-0 at Chengdu Phoenix Mountain Sports Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 1.68 xG and Qingdao Jonoon 1.03 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Qingdao Jonoon landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.08 / defence 0.91 against Qingdao Jonoon attack 0.88 / defence 0.96, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 51% | Draw 28% | Qingdao Jonoon 21%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 57%, Qingdao Jonoon 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Qingdao Jonoon's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.