Francs Borains 3-0 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates SK Beveren at 67% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Francs Borains vs SK Beveren encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Francs Borains welcome SK Beveren to Stade Robert Urbain in Challenger Pro League (matchday 19). Kick-off is Friday 26 January 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Francs Borains have gone 2W 1D 7L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Francs Borains's home record over their last 8 home games: 3W 1D 4L (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from their last 8 home games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Francs Borains are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, SK Beveren stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

SK Beveren's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SK Beveren — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Francs Borains, 1 for SK Beveren and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Francs Borains 0–3 SK Beveren — a SK Beveren win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Francs Borains trading profile (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.

SK Beveren trading profile (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 35% versus SK Beveren 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 47% | SK Beveren 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 0.73 xG and SK Beveren 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.788 / defence 1.126 | SK Beveren attack 1.157 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.192 / away 1.518. Francs Borains's attack rating of 0.788 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. SK Beveren bring a tight defence (rating 0.774, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Francs Borains's projected output down. Data: built from Francs Borains's last 17 games and SK Beveren's last 40.

Result probabilities: Francs Borains 13% | Draw 20% | SK Beveren 67%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 7.79 | Draw 4.90 | SK Beveren 1.50. The model has a clear lean to SK Beveren (67%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Francs Borains 38% (last 8 home games) | SK Beveren 40% (last 10 away games).

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