SK Beveren 0-2 Club Brugge II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SK Beveren at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SK Beveren and Club Brugge II meet at Freethielstadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 January 2024 at 18:15 UK time.
Current Form
SK Beveren's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
SK Beveren's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Club Brugge II have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Club Brugge II have gone 3W 0D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in SK Beveren's favour (2.30 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for SK Beveren, 1 for Club Brugge II and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended SK Beveren 3–0 Club Brugge II — a SK Beveren win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SK Beveren — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Club Brugge II — key trading statistics (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 55% versus Club Brugge II 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SK Beveren 67% | Club Brugge II 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.82 xG and Club Brugge II 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.228 / defence 0.974 | Club Brugge II attack 0.847 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.506. Club Brugge II's defence rating of 1.222 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SK Beveren's projected output up. Data: built from SK Beveren's last 39 games and Club Brugge II's last 39.
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 51% | Draw 23% | Club Brugge II 26%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 1.96 | Draw 4.36 | Club Brugge II 3.84. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.82 / 1.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SK Beveren as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SK Beveren if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SK Beveren's last 10 home games and Club Brugge II's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SK Beveren 60% (last 10 home games) | Club Brugge II 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 18 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 January 2024 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 51% | Draw 23% | Club Brugge II 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG SK Beveren 1.82 / Club Brugge II 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.228 / def 0.974 | Club Brugge II attack 0.847 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.506 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Club Brugge II xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II FAQs
What time does SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II kick off?
SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Sunday 21 January 2024 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II?
SK Beveren 0 - 2 Club Brugge II.
Where is SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II part of?
SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 18) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 51% chance of winning, Club Brugge II a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SK Beveren and Club Brugge II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SK Beveren's attack at 1.23x the league average against Club Brugge II's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Club Brugge II's attack (0.85x) against SK Beveren's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from SK Beveren's last 39 games and Club Brugge II's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
51%
1.96
23%
4.36
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
3.07
1.24
Club Brugge II xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
16%
6.19
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
4%
23.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Club Brugge II expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.24 for Club Brugge II, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SK Beveren come into this having played 49 games, going 28W 13D 8L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Club Brugge II sit at 1.41 PPG from 49 outings (20W 9D 20L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Club Brugge II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
SK Beveren's home form reads 17W 4D 3L across their last 24 home games, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Club Brugge II have taken 1.12 points per game from their last 24 away games (8W 3D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SK Beveren are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Club Brugge II are on 1.49 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Club Brugge II
Blended
SK Beveren (Home) vs Club Brugge II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SK Beveren
Blended
Club Brugge II
Blended
❓ SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II Form FAQs
What form are SK Beveren and Club Brugge II in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 28W 13D 8L in their last 49 games (1.98 PPG), while Club Brugge II have gone 20W 9D 20L in their last 49 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Club Brugge II away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.29 PPG; Club Brugge II away: 1.12 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Club Brugge II been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Club Brugge II in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between SK Beveren and Club Brugge II, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Club Brugge II won Club Brugge II 3-0 SK Beveren on 25 Feb 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SK Beveren have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Club Brugge II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SK Beveren
3
Draws
3
Club Brugge II
Recent Meetings
❓ SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Club Brugge II?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SK Beveren have won 4, Club Brugge II have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Club Brugge II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Club Brugge II 2-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Club Brugge II?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Club Brugge II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 62%, Club Brugge II 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for SK Beveren and 67% for Club Brugge II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Club Brugge II in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Club Brugge II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SK Beveren vs Club Brugge II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SK Beveren and Club Brugge II matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of SK Beveren's games and 58% of Club Brugge II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SK Beveren and Club Brugge II matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of SK Beveren's matches and 67% of Club Brugge II's.
Do SK Beveren and Club Brugge II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 83% of Club Brugge II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Club Brugge II cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SK Beveren.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Club Brugge II beat SK Beveren 0-2 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.82 xG and Club Brugge II 1.24 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SK Beveren fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.23 / defence 0.97 against Club Brugge II attack 0.85 / defence 1.22, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 51% | Draw 23% | Club Brugge II 26%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Club Brugge II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 67%, Club Brugge II 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Club Brugge II's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.41. Form was overturned, with Club Brugge II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SK Beveren (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Club Brugge II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.