KRC Genk II 3-0 RSC Anderlecht II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RSC Anderlecht II at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
KRC Genk II welcome RSC Anderlecht II to De Leunen in Challenger Pro League (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 27 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
KRC Genk II — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, KRC Genk II have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, RSC Anderlecht II have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
RSC Anderlecht II away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. RSC Anderlecht II's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of KRC Genk II's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for KRC Genk II, 1 for RSC Anderlecht II and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2023, ended KRC Genk II 1–1 RSC Anderlecht II — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
KRC Genk II in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
RSC Anderlecht II in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KRC Genk II 63% and RSC Anderlecht II 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 59% | RSC Anderlecht II 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: KRC Genk II surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while RSC Anderlecht II have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.17 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 1.059 / defence 1.256 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.118 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.514. KRC Genk II's defence rating of 1.256 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing RSC Anderlecht II's projected output up. Data: built from KRC Genk II's last 40 games and RSC Anderlecht II's last 39.
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 20% | Draw 20% | RSC Anderlecht II 59%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 4.94 | Draw 4.88 | RSC Anderlecht II 1.69. The model has a clear lean to RSC Anderlecht II (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.17 / 2.13) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, RSC Anderlecht II are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (KRC Genk II's last 10 home games and RSC Anderlecht II's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: KRC Genk II 60% (last 10 home games) | RSC Anderlecht II 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 19 | Venue: De Leunen • Kick-off: Saturday 27 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 20% | Draw 20% | RSC Anderlecht II 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG KRC Genk II 1.17 / RSC Anderlecht II 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 1.059 / def 1.256 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.118 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.514 • Poisson stance: RSC Anderlecht II (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
2.13
RSC Anderlecht II xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II FAQs
What time does KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II kick off?
KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 27 January 2024 at De Leunen.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II?
KRC Genk II 3 - 0 RSC Anderlecht II.
Where is KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II being played?
The match is being played at De Leunen.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II part of?
KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 19) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 20% chance of winning, RSC Anderlecht II a 59% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making RSC Anderlecht II the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
KRC Genk II's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against RSC Anderlecht II's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, RSC Anderlecht II's attack versus KRC Genk II's defence, projects 2.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from KRC Genk II's last 40 games and RSC Anderlecht II's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RSC Anderlecht II Win
20%
4.94
20%
4.88
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
3.29
2.13
RSC Anderlecht II xG
4.94
20%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
12%
8.38
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
2%
41.39
18%
5.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 2.13 for RSC Anderlecht II, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
KRC Genk II come into this having played 49 games, going 10W 12D 27L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, RSC Anderlecht II sit at 1.24 PPG from 49 outings (15W 16D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: KRC Genk II on 0.86 PPG, RSC Anderlecht II on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
KRC Genk II's home form reads 4W 6D 14L across their last 24 home games, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, RSC Anderlecht II have taken 1.62 points per game from their last 24 away games (11W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RSC Anderlecht II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; RSC Anderlecht II are on 1.47 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; RSC Anderlecht II in 63%.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Blended
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
KRC Genk II (Home) vs RSC Anderlecht II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KRC Genk II
Blended
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
❓ KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II Form FAQs
What form are KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 10W 12D 27L in their last 49 games (0.86 PPG), while RSC Anderlecht II have gone 15W 16D 18L in their last 49 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or RSC Anderlecht II away?
RSC Anderlecht II's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 0.75 PPG; RSC Anderlecht II away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 20 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Jan 2024, when KRC Genk II won KRC Genk II 3-0 RSC Anderlecht II.
KRC Genk II's record when hosting RSC Anderlecht II specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
KRC Genk II
1
Draws
3
RSC Anderlecht II
Recent Meetings
❓ KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, KRC Genk II have won 4, RSC Anderlecht II have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 February 2026: RSC Anderlecht II 2-1 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II?
KRC Genk II have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 58%, RSC Anderlecht II 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (KRC Genk II) and 58% (RSC Anderlecht II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KRC Genk II have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / RSC Anderlecht II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KRC Genk II vs RSC Anderlecht II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of KRC Genk II's games and 67% of RSC Anderlecht II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of KRC Genk II's matches and 58% of RSC Anderlecht II's.
Do KRC Genk II and RSC Anderlecht II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 71% of RSC Anderlecht II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant KRC Genk II run riot with a 3-0 hammering of RSC Anderlecht II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KRC Genk II beat RSC Anderlecht II 3-0 at De Leunen, Regular Season - 19, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.17 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 2.13 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. KRC Genk II beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RSC Anderlecht II landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 1.06 / defence 1.26 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.12 / defence 0.91, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 20% | Draw 20% | RSC Anderlecht II 59%, with RSC Anderlecht II to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a KRC Genk II win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 59%, RSC Anderlecht II 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KRC Genk II 0.86 PPG, RSC Anderlecht II 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KRC Genk II win broke the near-deadlock. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.