Patro Eisden 3-1 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Patro Eisden at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Patro Eisden welcome Francs Borains to Patrostadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 4 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Patro Eisden — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Patro Eisden's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 3L across their last 9 home games (1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Francs Borains stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Francs Borains's away record over their last 9 away games: 2W 0D 7L (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.

Patro Eisden carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Patro Eisden have won 0, Francs Borains 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Patro Eisden 0–0 Francs Borains — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Patro Eisden in-play tendencies (last 18 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Francs Borains in-play tendencies (last 18 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 44% versus Francs Borains 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 50% | Francs Borains 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.71 xG and Francs Borains 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 1.147 / defence 1.043 | Francs Borains attack 0.844 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.444. Francs Borains's defence rating of 1.279 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Patro Eisden's projected output up. Data: built from Patro Eisden's last 19 games and Francs Borains's last 18.

Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 48% | Draw 24% | Francs Borains 29%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 2.10 | Draw 4.20 | Francs Borains 3.50. Patro Eisden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Patro Eisden at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Patro Eisden's last 9 home games and Francs Borains's last 9 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Patro Eisden 56% (last 9 home games) | Francs Borains 33% (last 9 away games).

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