Austria Lustenau 0-3 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Austria Lustenau at 38% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Austria Lustenau welcome SCR Altach to Planet Pure Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 5). Kick-off is Saturday 26 August 2023 at 19:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Austria Lustenau stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Austria Lustenau's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, SCR Altach have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling, SCR Altach have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Austria Lustenau) versus 1.00 (SCR Altach). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

Austria Lustenau hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for SCR Altach and 1 draw.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 May 2023, ended Austria Lustenau 1–1 SCR Altach — a draw.

The head-to-head data gives Austria Lustenau an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

In-Play Data

Austria Lustenau trading profile (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

SCR Altach trading profile (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 100%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Lustenau 58% versus SCR Altach 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 56% | SCR Altach 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.29 xG and SCR Altach 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.797 / defence 1.005 | SCR Altach attack 0.790 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.392. Austria Lustenau's attack rating of 0.797 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.29. SCR Altach's defence rating of 1.278 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Austria Lustenau's projected output up. SCR Altach's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Data: built from Austria Lustenau's last 26 games and SCR Altach's last 26. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 38% | Draw 33% | SCR Altach 29%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 2.64 | Draw 3.00 | SCR Altach 3.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Austria Lustenau are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Austria Lustenau 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Lustenau offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Austria Lustenau 60% (last 10 home games) | SCR Altach 40% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Austria Lustenau 26 games, SCR Altach 26) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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