TSV Hartberg 0-3 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Klagenfurt at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Austria Klagenfurt travel to PROfertil ARENA to take on TSV Hartberg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 August 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at PROfertil ARENA this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Austria Klagenfurt — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Austria Klagenfurt have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — TSV Hartberg at 1.50 PPG versus Austria Klagenfurt's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. TSV Hartberg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for TSV Hartberg, 2 for Austria Klagenfurt and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 0–1 with Austria Klagenfurt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Austria Klagenfurt in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 56% versus Austria Klagenfurt 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 61% | Austria Klagenfurt 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.19 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.093 / defence 1.398 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.041 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.441. Data: 26 TSV Hartberg games / 26 Austria Klagenfurt games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 19% | Draw 25% | Austria Klagenfurt 56%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 5.26 | Draw 4.00 | Austria Klagenfurt 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Austria Klagenfurt (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.19 / 2.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Klagenfurt as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 60% | Austria Klagenfurt 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 19% | Draw 25% | Austria Klagenfurt 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.19 / Austria Klagenfurt 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.093 / def 1.398 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.041 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
2.10
Austria Klagenfurt xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 27 August 2023 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 3 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 19% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 56% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
Record (2 meetings): TSV Hartberg 0W | Draws 0 | Austria Klagenfurt 2W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Austria Klagenfurt's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Klagenfurt's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 2.10 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (26/26 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
19%
5.30
25%
4.01
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
0 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
3.29
2.10
Austria Klagenfurt xG
5.30
19%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
12%
8.15
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
2%
43.21
17%
5.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 2.10 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, TSV Hartberg have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 10W 8D 18L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Austria Klagenfurt's form line: 12W 8D 16L from 36 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.06 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, TSV Hartberg have posted 1.06 PPG from 18 outings (5W 4D 9L).
On the road, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 7W 3D 8L from 18 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.42 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt in 64%.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Austria Klagenfurt
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 10W 8D 18L in their last 36 games (1.06 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 12W 8D 16L in their last 36 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Austria Klagenfurt's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.06 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2023, when Austria Klagenfurt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Austria Klagenfurt specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
TSV Hartberg
4
Draws
4
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 2, Austria Klagenfurt have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Austria Klagenfurt 0-1 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — TSV Hartberg at 61%, Austria Klagenfurt at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for TSV Hartberg and 83% for Austria Klagenfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 72% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Austria Klagenfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of TSV Hartberg's games and 78% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 83% of Austria Klagenfurt's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Austria Klagenfurt run riot with a 0-3 hammering of TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat TSV Hartberg 0-3 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.19 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 2.10 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. TSV Hartberg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Austria Klagenfurt outscored their 2.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.09 / defence 1.40 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.04 / defence 0.88, drawn from 26/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 19% | Draw 25% | Austria Klagenfurt 56%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 61%, Austria Klagenfurt 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.06 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Klagenfurt win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.