SCR Altach 1-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SCR Altach vs Sturm Graz encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

SCR Altach welcome Sturm Graz to CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 6). Kick-off is Saturday 2 September 2023 at 19:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, SCR Altach stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home, SCR Altach have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across their last 10 games, Sturm Graz have recorded 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 7W 0D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sturm Graz are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, SCR Altach have won 0, Sturm Graz 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Nov 2022, ended SCR Altach 1–1 Sturm Graz — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

SCR Altach in-play tendencies (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 80%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 49% versus Sturm Graz 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 49% | Sturm Graz 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 0.75 xG and Sturm Graz 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.845 / defence 0.863 | Sturm Graz attack 1.050 / defence 0.752. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.553. Sturm Graz bring a tight defence (rating 0.752, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling SCR Altach's projected output down. Data: built from SCR Altach's last 27 games and Sturm Graz's last 27.

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 16% | Draw 35% | Sturm Graz 49%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 6.16 | Draw 2.88 | Sturm Graz 2.04. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SCR Altach's last 10 home games and Sturm Graz's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SCR Altach 30% (last 10 home games) | Sturm Graz 50% (last 10 away games).

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