Al-Raed 0-0 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Al Taawon travel to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to take on Al-Raed. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's home record at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Taawon — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Al-Raed) versus 1.40 (Al Taawon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Raed register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al Taawon in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al Taawon have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 1 for Al-Raed.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Al Taawon winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Taawon have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Raed 58% and Al Taawon 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 68% | Al Taawon 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.35 xG and Al Taawon 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.981 / defence 1.134 | Al Taawon attack 1.107 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.471. Data: 53 Al-Raed games / 53 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 28% | Draw 24% | Al Taawon 48%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Al Taawon 2.08. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 60% | Al Taawon 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 28% | Draw 24% | Al Taawon 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Al-Raed 1.35 / Al Taawon 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.981 / def 1.134 | Al Taawon attack 1.107 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.85
Al Taawon xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al Taawon kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 16 March 2024 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al Taawon?
Al-Raed 0 - 0 Al Taawon.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Raed vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 28% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 48% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al-Raed and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Taawon?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Raed 1W | Draws 0 | Al Taawon 4W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al Taawon in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Raed's attack rating (0.98) and Al Taawon's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 1.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
28%
3.62
24%
4.18
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
3.20
1.85
Al Taawon xG
3.62
28%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
16%
6.34
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
4%
22.96
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.2 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.85 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Raed's recent record stands at 15W 12D 26L from 53 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 27W 13D 13L across 53 games — 1.77 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Raed heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al-Raed have managed 9W 3D 14L from 26 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 14W 7D 5L across 26 trips, a 1.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Raed are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.60 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 66%.
Last 53 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 15W 12D 26L in their last 53 games (1.08 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 27W 13D 13L in their last 53 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.15 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Raed and Al Taawon runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Taawon have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Al Taawon won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al-Raed
1
Draws
6
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al Taawon?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 1, Al Taawon have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2025, when Al Taawon 4-3 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 58%, Al Taawon 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Al-Raed) and 46% (Al Taawon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 31%; Al-Raed have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Raed's games and 62% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Raed vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Al-Raed's matches and 46% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al-Raed and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Raed's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Al-Raed and Al Taawon drew 0-0 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.35 xG and Al Taawon 1.85 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Raed fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al Taawon landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.98 / defence 1.13 against Al Taawon attack 1.11 / defence 0.98, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 28% | Draw 24% | Al Taawon 48%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 68%, Al Taawon 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Taawon's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taawon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.