Al-Fayha 1-1 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Al Riyadh travel to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 March 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fayha stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Riyadh have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Riyadh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Riyadh's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fayha at 1.50 PPG versus Al Riyadh's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al Riyadh 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with Al-Fayha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Fayha trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al Riyadh trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 61% versus Al Riyadh 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 61% | Al Riyadh 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.60 xG and Al Riyadh 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.852 / defence 1.118 | Al Riyadh attack 0.773 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.490. Al Riyadh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Al-Fayha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Al-Fayha games / 23 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 44% | Draw 25% | Al Riyadh 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Al Riyadh 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fayha 30% | Al Riyadh 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 44% | Draw 25% | Al Riyadh 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Fayha 1.60 / Al Riyadh 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.852 / def 1.118 | Al Riyadh attack 0.773 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.490 • Poisson stance: Al-Fayha (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Al Riyadh xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 March 2024 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh?
Al-Fayha 1 - 1 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 44% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Fayha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Fayha 1W | Draws 0 | Al Riyadh 0W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Al Riyadh (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.85x the league average against Al Riyadh's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Riyadh's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fayha Win
44%
2.26
25%
3.94
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.89
1.29
Al Riyadh xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
6%
16.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.29 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 8W 7D 8L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Riyadh's form line: 6W 5D 12L from 23 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Al Riyadh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.35 PPG, Al Riyadh on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 0.91 PPG from 11 outings (2W 4D 5L). That actually lags their 1.35 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Al Riyadh have gone 3W 1D 7L from 11 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 0.91 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fayha have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al Riyadh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 8W 7D 8L in their last 23 games (1.35 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 6W 5D 12L in their last 23 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al-Fayha's home record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 0.91 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al Riyadh specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al-Fayha
3
Draws
0
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 3, Al Riyadh have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Al-Fayha 4-2 Al Riyadh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 36%, Al Riyadh 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Al-Fayha and 82% for Al Riyadh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 64% of games; Al Riyadh in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al Riyadh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 64% of Al Riyadh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Al-Fayha's matches and 82% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 36% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Al-Fayha and Al Riyadh drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.60 xG and Al Riyadh 1.29 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.85 / defence 1.12 against Al Riyadh attack 0.77 / defence 1.32, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 44% | Draw 25% | Al Riyadh 30%, with Al-Fayha to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 61%, Al Riyadh 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.35 PPG, Al Riyadh 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.