Al Khaleej Saihat 2-2 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Khaleej Saihat face Al Okhdood.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al Okhdood travel to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Thursday 14 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Al Okhdood — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Al Okhdood's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Al Khaleej Saihat) versus 1.30 (Al Okhdood). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Al Khaleej Saihat, 0 for Al Okhdood and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2023, ended Al Khaleej Saihat 1–0 Al Okhdood — a Al Khaleej Saihat win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play and half-time data (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 56% versus Al Okhdood 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 44% | Al Okhdood 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.51 xG and Al Okhdood 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.863 / defence 0.887 | Al Okhdood attack 0.638 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.472. Al Okhdood's defence rating of 1.212 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Khaleej Saihat's projected output up. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.638 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Al Khaleej Saihat's last 53 games and Al Okhdood's last 23.
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 53% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 20%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 1.90 | Draw 3.66 | Al Okhdood 4.96. Al Khaleej Saihat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Khaleej Saihat are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Khaleej Saihat 50% (last 10 home games) | Al Okhdood 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, matchday 24 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 14 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 53% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.51 / Al Okhdood 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.863 / def 0.887 | Al Okhdood attack 0.638 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.472 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Al Okhdood xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood FAQs
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Thursday 14 March 2024 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood?
Al Khaleej Saihat 2 - 2 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood is a Pro League fixture (matchday 24) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 53% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Khaleej Saihat's attack rating (0.86) and Al Okhdood's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Khaleej Saihat's last 53 games and Al Okhdood's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.66
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.34
0.83
Al Okhdood xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
4%
22.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.1 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 0.83 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, Al Khaleej Saihat have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 7W 6D 10L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Al Okhdood's form line: 7W 2D 14L from 23 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Khaleej Saihat on 1.17 PPG, Al Okhdood on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 1.18 PPG from their last 11 home games (3W 4D 4L).
On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 2D 7L from their last 11 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Khaleej Saihat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.83 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al Khaleej Saihat (Home) vs Al Okhdood (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood Form FAQs
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 7W 6D 10L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 7W 2D 14L in their last 23 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.18 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 16 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Jan 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat won Al Khaleej Saihat 4-1 Al Okhdood.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al Khaleej Saihat
1
Draws
2
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 3, Al Okhdood have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2026: Al Okhdood 3-1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood?
Al Khaleej Saihat have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 54%, Al Okhdood 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 46% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 36% of games; Al Okhdood in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 46% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 46% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 64% of Al Okhdood's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood finished level at 2-2 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.51 xG and Al Okhdood 0.83 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Okhdood outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.86 / defence 0.89 against Al Okhdood attack 0.64 / defence 1.21, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 53% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 20%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 44%, Al Okhdood 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.17 PPG, Al Okhdood 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.