Al-Fateh 2-4 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (47%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Fateh face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al-Ittihad FC travel to Al Fateh Club Stadium to take on Al-Fateh in Pro League (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Al-Fateh have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Fateh at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ittihad FC — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ittihad FC's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Al-Fateh's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Al-Ittihad FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Al-Fateh.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2023, ended Al-Fateh 1–2 Al-Ittihad FC — a Al-Ittihad FC win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 5.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Al-Ittihad FC trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 58% versus Al-Ittihad FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 58% | Al-Ittihad FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.11 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 0.872 / defence 0.990 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.065 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.471. Data: built from Al-Fateh's last 53 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 53.
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 26% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 3.79 | Draw 3.74 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.13. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ittihad FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 5.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Fateh 60% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ittihad FC 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, matchday 24 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 26% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Al-Fateh 1.11 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 0.872 / def 0.990 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.065 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Al-Ittihad FC xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC FAQs
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Fateh 2 - 4 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Pro League fixture (matchday 24) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 26% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Fateh's attack rating (0.87) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Fateh's last 53 games and Al-Ittihad FC's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
26%
3.79
27%
3.74
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.66
1.55
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
6%
17.85
15%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.55 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 21W 11D 21L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 34W 10D 9L from 53 games, 2.11 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.31 PPG from their last 26 home games (9W 7D 10L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 15W 7D 4L from their last 26 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 1.96 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Fateh (Home) vs Al-Ittihad FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC Form FAQs
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 21W 11D 21L in their last 53 games (1.40 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 34W 10D 9L in their last 53 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.31 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from May 2022. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Mar 2023, when Al-Ittihad FC won Al-Fateh 1-5 Al-Ittihad FC.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fateh
3
Draws
6
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Fateh have won 1, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Al-Fateh 0-0 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 54%, Al-Ittihad FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Al-Fateh) and 62% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC in 50%; Al-Fateh have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Fateh vs Al-Ittihad FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 46% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 62% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Ittihad FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 69% of Al-Ittihad FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Fateh 2-4 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.11 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.55 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Al-Fateh beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 1.55 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 0.87 / defence 0.99 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.06 / defence 0.90, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 26% | Draw 27% | Al-Ittihad FC 47%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 58%, Al-Ittihad FC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.40. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.