Al Okhdood 1-3 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Raed make the trip to Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium to face Al Okhdood in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 29 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Okhdood's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Al-Raed have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Okhdood lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Al Okhdood winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Raed — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 46% versus Al-Raed 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 50% | Al-Raed 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.21 xG and Al-Raed 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.869 / defence 1.035 | Al-Raed attack 1.024 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.479. Data: 24 Al Okhdood games / 54 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 28% | Draw 27% | Al-Raed 44%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 3.57 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Raed 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 40% | Al-Raed 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 28% | Draw 27% | Al-Raed 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Al Okhdood 1.21 / Al-Raed 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.869 / def 1.035 | Al-Raed attack 1.024 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.479 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Al-Raed xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 March 2024 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed?
Al Okhdood 1 - 3 Al-Raed.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 28% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Raed?
Record (1 meetings): Al Okhdood 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Raed 0W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Raed in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Al-Raed (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Okhdood's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Al-Raed's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Al-Raed's attack (1.02x) against Al Okhdood's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 24/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
28%
3.53
27%
3.68
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.78
1.57
Al-Raed xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
6%
16.92
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.57 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Okhdood's recent record stands at 7W 3D 14L from 24 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Raed, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 12L across 24 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Al Okhdood against 1.00 for Al-Raed. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Okhdood have managed 5W 0D 7L from 12 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Raed's away record stands at 2W 5D 5L across 12 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.25 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 7W 3D 14L in their last 24 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 6W 6D 12L in their last 24 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al-Raed away?
Al Okhdood's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 1.25 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al Okhdood have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Okhdood have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al Okhdood
0
Draws
1
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Raed?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 3, Al-Raed have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2025, when Al Okhdood 1-0 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Raed?
Al Okhdood have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Raed see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 42%, Al-Raed 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Okhdood) and 50% (Al-Raed).
On the defensive side: Al-Raed in 33%; Al Okhdood have failed to score in 33% of games; Al-Raed in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 58% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Okhdood's recent games and 50% of Al-Raed's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Raed cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed beat Al Okhdood 1-3 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.21 xG and Al-Raed 1.57 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Raed outscored their 1.57 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.87 / defence 1.03 against Al-Raed attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 28% | Draw 27% | Al-Raed 44%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 50%, Al-Raed 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Raed's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 1.00 PPG, Al-Raed 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Raed win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.