1. FC Nürnberg 1-2 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 69% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
FC Schalke 04 travel to Max-Morlock-Stadion to take on 1. FC Nürnberg in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, 1. FC Nürnberg have posted 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, FC Schalke 04 have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, FC Schalke 04 have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
1. FC Nürnberg are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of 1. FC Nürnberg's games and 60% of FC Schalke 04's (from 1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 home games and FC Schalke 04's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 0, FC Schalke 04 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 15 May 2022, ended 1. FC Nürnberg 1–2 FC Schalke 04 — a FC Schalke 04 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Nürnberg in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 44% versus FC Schalke 04 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 49% | FC Schalke 04 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 2.29 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.972 / defence 0.836 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.763 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.699 / away 1.361. FC Schalke 04's defence rating of 1.389 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing 1. FC Nürnberg's projected output up. FC Schalke 04's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from 1. FC Nürnberg's last 45 games and FC Schalke 04's last 11.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 69% | Draw 19% | FC Schalke 04 12%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.45 | Draw 5.28 | FC Schalke 04 8.22. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Nürnberg (69%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Nürnberg at 69% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 home games and FC Schalke 04's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Nürnberg 60% (last 10 home games) | FC Schalke 04 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 12 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 69% | Draw 19% | FC Schalke 04 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 2.29 / FC Schalke 04 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.972 / def 0.836 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.763 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.699 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
0.87
FC Schalke 04 xG
53%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 FAQs
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04?
1. FC Nürnberg 1 - 2 FC Schalke 04.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 12) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 69% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Nürnberg's attack rating (0.97) and FC Schalke 04's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 2.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Nürnberg's last 45 games and FC Schalke 04's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
69%
1.45
19%
5.28
12%
8.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
3.16
0.87
FC Schalke 04 xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.28
19%
Draw
8.22
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
10%
9.89
Win to Nil
29%
3.46
1%
81.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 0.87 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Nürnberg come into this having played 45 games, going 15W 12D 18L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, FC Schalke 04 sit at 0.91 PPG from 45 outings (10W 11D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.27 PPG, FC Schalke 04 on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
1. FC Nürnberg's home form reads 10W 6D 6L across their last 22 home games, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Schalke 04 have taken 0.55 points per game from their last 22 away games (2W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.16 scored and 2.13 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg (Home) vs FC Schalke 04 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 15W 12D 18L in their last 45 games (1.27 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 10W 11D 24L in their last 45 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.64 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 0.55 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or FC Schalke 04 been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FC Schalke 04 in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Dec 2021, when FC Schalke 04 won FC Schalke 04 4-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
1. FC Nürnberg
0
Draws
6
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 2, FC Schalke 04 have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: 1. FC Nürnberg 3-0 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04?
FC Schalke 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 41%, FC Schalke 04 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 54% (FC Schalke 04).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 27% of games; FC Schalke 04 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 46% of FC Schalke 04's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 54% of FC Schalke 04's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 68% of FC Schalke 04's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Schalke 04 defy the odds to beat 1. FC Nürnberg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Schalke 04 beat 1. FC Nürnberg 1-2 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 2.29 xG and FC Schalke 04 0.87 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FC Schalke 04 outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.97 / defence 0.84 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.76 / defence 1.39, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 69% | Draw 19% | FC Schalke 04 12%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a FC Schalke 04 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 49%, FC Schalke 04 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.27 PPG, FC Schalke 04 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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