Hansa Rostock 0-0 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 45%, yet in-form Hertha BSC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hansa Rostock vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hansa Rostock and Hertha BSC meet at Ostseestadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 November 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hansa Rostock have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock at Ostseestadion this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Hansa Rostock are significantly better at Ostseestadion than their overall form suggests.
Hertha BSC (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Hertha BSC are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hansa Rostock have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hertha BSC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Hansa Rostock half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Hertha BSC half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 38% versus Hertha BSC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 42% | Hertha BSC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.94 xG and Hertha BSC 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.839 / defence 1.127 | Hertha BSC attack 1.035 / defence 1.391. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.361. Hertha BSC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.391 — this is suppressing Hansa Rostock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Hansa Rostock games / 11 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 45% | Draw 23% | Hertha BSC 31%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Hertha BSC 3.23. Hansa Rostock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hansa Rostock are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hertha BSC (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 60% | Hertha BSC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 45% | Draw 23% | Hertha BSC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.94 / Hertha BSC 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.839 / def 1.127 | Hertha BSC attack 1.035 / def 1.391 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Hertha BSC xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs Hertha BSC?
Hansa Rostock 0 - 0 Hertha BSC.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs Hertha BSC part of?
Hansa Rostock vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 45% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Hansa Rostock and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Hertha BSC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hansa Rostock and Hertha BSC in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hansa Rostock's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. Flip it around — Hertha BSC's attack (1.03x) against Hansa Rostock's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 45/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
45%
2.20
23%
4.28
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
3.53
1.59
Hertha BSC xG
2.20
45%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
9%
10.77
4%
22.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.59 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, Hansa Rostock have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 16W 5D 24L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC's form line: 12W 8D 25L from 45 games, 0.98 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Hansa Rostock against 0.98 for Hertha BSC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hansa Rostock have posted 1.22 PPG from 23 outings (9W 1D 13L).
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 4W 2D 17L from 23 away games — 0.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hansa Rostock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hansa Rostock are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.42 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC in 64%.
Last 45 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 16W 5D 24L in their last 45 games (1.18 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 12W 8D 25L in their last 45 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or Hertha BSC away?
Hansa Rostock's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.22 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hansa Rostock
1
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Hertha BSC?
From 2 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 0, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2024, when Hertha BSC 4-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and Hertha BSC?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 44%, Hertha BSC 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Hansa Rostock) and 70% (Hertha BSC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 35% of games; Hertha BSC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Hansa Rostock's games and 70% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hansa Rostock vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Hansa Rostock's matches and 70% of Hertha BSC's.
Do Hansa Rostock and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hansa Rostock's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock and Hertha BSC finished level at 0-0 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 12, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.94 xG and Hertha BSC 1.59 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hansa Rostock fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Hertha BSC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.84 / defence 1.13 against Hertha BSC attack 1.03 / defence 1.39, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 45% | Draw 23% | Hertha BSC 31%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 42%, Hertha BSC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hansa Rostock 1.18 PPG, Hertha BSC 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.