Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-3 SV Wehen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fortuna Düsseldorf face SV Wehen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Fortuna Düsseldorf welcome SV Wehen to Düsseldorf Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 12). Kick-off is Friday 3 November 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, SV Wehen stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, SV Wehen have gone 3W 0D 3L in their last 6 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Fortuna Düsseldorf) versus 1.40 (SV Wehen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
SV Wehen in-play and half-time data (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 62% versus SV Wehen 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 62% | SV Wehen 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.57 xG and SV Wehen 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.012 / defence 1.060 | SV Wehen attack 0.805 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.340. Data: built from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 45 games and SV Wehen's last 11.
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 47% | Draw 26% | SV Wehen 27%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.15 | Draw 3.78 | SV Wehen 3.71. Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Düsseldorf at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 home games and SV Wehen's last 6 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fortuna Düsseldorf 70% (last 10 home games) | SV Wehen 50% (last 6 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Wehen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 12 | Venue: Düsseldorf Arena • Kick-off: Friday 3 November 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 47% | Draw 26% | SV Wehen 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.57 / SV Wehen 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.012 / def 1.060 | SV Wehen attack 0.805 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.14
SV Wehen xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Wehen FAQs
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Wehen kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Wehen kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 3 November 2023 at Düsseldorf Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Wehen?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1 - 3 SV Wehen.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Wehen being played?
The match is being played at Düsseldorf Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Wehen part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Wehen is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 12) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Wehen?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 47% chance of winning, SV Wehen a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Wehen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Wehen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Wehen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fortuna Düsseldorf's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against SV Wehen's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, SV Wehen's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 45 games and SV Wehen's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
47%
2.15
26%
3.78
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.71
1.14
SV Wehen xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
15%
6.74
6%
17.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Wehen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Wehen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Wehen expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.14 for SV Wehen, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Wehen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent record stands at 7W 4D 2L from 13 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-W in the last five.
SV Wehen, meanwhile, have gone 6W 3D 4L across 13 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.92 PPG, SV Wehen on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fortuna Düsseldorf have managed 3W 2D 1L from their last 6 home games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Wehen's away record stands at 3W 0D 3L across their last 6 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 2.23 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; SV Wehen are on 1.23 scored and 0.92 conceded. Fortuna Düsseldorf's scoring rate against SV Wehen's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: SV Wehen in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
SV Wehen
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf (Home) vs SV Wehen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
SV Wehen
Blended
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Wehen Form FAQs
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Wehen in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 7W 4D 2L in their last 13 games (1.92 PPG), while SV Wehen have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or SV Wehen away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.83 PPG; SV Wehen away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Fortuna Düsseldorf or SV Wehen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SV Wehen in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
0
Draws
1
SV Wehen
Recent Meetings
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Wehen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Wehen?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, SV Wehen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Wehen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 April 2024: SV Wehen 0-2 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fortuna Düsseldorf at 83%, SV Wehen at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 50% (SV Wehen).
On the defensive side: SV Wehen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / SV Wehen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Wehen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Wehen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 50% of SV Wehen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Wehen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent games and 50% of SV Wehen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Wehen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent matches and 67% of SV Wehen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Wehen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Fortuna Düsseldorf.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Wehen beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-3 at Düsseldorf Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.57 xG and SV Wehen 1.14 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. SV Wehen outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.01 / defence 1.06 against SV Wehen attack 0.81 / defence 0.90, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 47% | Draw 26% | SV Wehen 27%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual SV Wehen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 62%, SV Wehen 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
SV Wehen's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.92 PPG, SV Wehen 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Wehen win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Wehen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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