Austria Lustenau 0-4 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Planet Pure Stadion plays host to Austria Lustenau versus Red Bull Salzburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Austria Lustenau have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Lustenau's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Planet Pure Stadion this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Austria Lustenau are significantly better at Planet Pure Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Red Bull Salzburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg away from home this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 away games — 2.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Red Bull Salzburg arrive in superior form — a 2.00 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Austria Lustenau 0W, Red Bull Salzburg 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 0–4 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Austria Lustenau half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Red Bull Salzburg half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Lustenau 55% versus Red Bull Salzburg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 55% | Red Bull Salzburg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 0.94 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 2.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.806 / defence 1.283 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.366 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.568. Red Bull Salzburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.366 — the away xG of 2.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 30 Austria Lustenau games / 30 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 9% | Draw 17% | Red Bull Salzburg 74%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 11.11 | Draw 5.88 | Red Bull Salzburg 1.35. The model has a clear lean to Red Bull Salzburg (74%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Austria Lustenau 60% | Red Bull Salzburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 9% | Draw 17% | Red Bull Salzburg 74% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 58% | xG Austria Lustenau 0.94 / Red Bull Salzburg 2.75 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.806 / def 1.283 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.366 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.568 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
2.75
Red Bull Salzburg xG
58%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Planet Pure Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Austria Lustenau 0 - 4 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 9% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 74% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Austria Lustenau and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Red Bull Salzburg?
Record (2 meetings): Austria Lustenau 0W | Draws 0 | Red Bull Salzburg 2W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and Red Bull Salzburg in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Austria Lustenau's attack rating (0.81) and Red Bull Salzburg's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Red Bull Salzburg's attack (1.37x) against Austria Lustenau's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 2.75.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-3 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
9%
11.04
17%
5.87
74%
1.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 3
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
3.69
2.75
Red Bull Salzburg xG
11.04
9%
Home win
5.87
17%
Draw
1.35
74%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
6%
15.61
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
1%
172.31
29%
3.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 3.3 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 2.75 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Austria Lustenau's recent record stands at 11W 12D 17L from 40 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg, meanwhile, have gone 29W 9D 2L across 40 games — 2.40 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Red Bull Salzburg by 1.28 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Austria Lustenau heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Austria Lustenau have managed 6W 5D 9L from 20 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record stands at 16W 3D 1L across 20 trips, a 2.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.12 scored and 0.68 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 11W 12D 17L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 29W 9D 2L in their last 40 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 1.15 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.55 PPG.
Have Austria Lustenau or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Lustenau have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Red Bull Salzburg go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Red Bull Salzburg won 7-0 on 24 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Lustenau have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Red Bull Salzburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Austria Lustenau
0
Draws
4
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 4 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 0, Red Bull Salzburg have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg 7-0 Austria Lustenau.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 55%, Red Bull Salzburg 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Austria Lustenau and 60% for Red Bull Salzburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 45%; Austria Lustenau have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play Red Bull Salzburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Austria Lustenau's games and 55% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Lustenau vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 60% of Red Bull Salzburg's.
Do Austria Lustenau and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Red Bull Salzburg run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Austria Lustenau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat Austria Lustenau 0-4 at Planet Pure Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 0.94 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 2.75 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Austria Lustenau fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Red Bull Salzburg outscored their 2.75 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 0.81 / defence 1.28 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.37 / defence 0.92, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 9% | Draw 17% | Red Bull Salzburg 74%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 55%, Red Bull Salzburg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.45 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.