Wolfsberger AC 2-1 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Lask Linz travel to Lavanttal Arena to take on Wolfsberger AC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 September 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Wolfsberger AC have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lavanttal Arena, Wolfsberger AC have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lask Linz stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lask Linz are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Wolfsberger AC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lask Linz in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Wolfsberger AC, 2 for Lask Linz and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 1–4 with Lask Linz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Lask Linz trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 70% and Lask Linz 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 75% | Lask Linz 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.10 xG and Lask Linz 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.888 / defence 1.079 | Lask Linz attack 0.981 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.568. Data: 30 Wolfsberger AC games / 30 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 23% | Draw 29% | Lask Linz 48%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | Lask Linz 2.08. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 60% | Lask Linz 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 23% | Draw 29% | Lask Linz 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.10 / Lask Linz 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.888 / def 1.079 | Lask Linz attack 0.981 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.568 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Lask Linz xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Wolfsberger AC 2 - 1 Lask Linz.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 23% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz?
Record (4 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 2W | Draws 0 | Lask Linz 2W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Lask Linz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wolfsberger AC's attack rating (0.89) and Lask Linz's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
23%
4.36
29%
3.48
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.76
1.66
Lask Linz xG
4.36
23%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
4%
22.95
16%
6.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.66 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 14W 9D 17L from 40 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 7L across 40 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lask Linz by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wolfsberger AC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 4W 4D 11L from 19 games — 0.84 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.27 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Lask Linz's away record stands at 6W 10D 3L across 19 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.62 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Lask Linz in 62%.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 14W 9D 17L in their last 40 games (1.27 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 18W 15D 7L in their last 40 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Lask Linz away?
Lask Linz's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 0.84 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Lask Linz won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Wolfsberger AC
0
Draws
3
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 7, Lask Linz have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Lask Linz 3-1 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Wolfsberger AC at 74%, Lask Linz at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Wolfsberger AC) and 32% (Lask Linz).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 68% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 74% of Wolfsberger AC's recent games and 32% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wolfsberger AC defy the odds to beat Lask Linz 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Lask Linz 2-1 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.10 xG and Lask Linz 1.66 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 0.89 / defence 1.08 against Lask Linz attack 0.98 / defence 0.98, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 23% | Draw 29% | Lask Linz 48%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Wolfsberger AC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 75%, Lask Linz 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Lask Linz's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Wolfsberger AC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lask Linz (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.