Austria Lustenau 0-5 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rapid Vienna at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Lustenau vs Rapid Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rapid Vienna make the trip to Planet Pure Stadion to face Austria Lustenau in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 October 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Austria Lustenau (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Lustenau's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Planet Pure Stadion this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Rapid Vienna are 0.90 PPG clear of Austria Lustenau in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.10 vs 0.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Austria Lustenau have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rapid Vienna in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Austria Lustenau 0W, Rapid Vienna 0W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Austria Lustenau goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Lustenau 54% versus Rapid Vienna 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 56% | Rapid Vienna 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 0.77 xG and Rapid Vienna 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.762 / defence 1.438 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.017 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.428. Austria Lustenau's attack strength of 0.762 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Austria Lustenau games / 31 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 10% | Draw 24% | Rapid Vienna 65%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 10.00 | Draw 4.17 | Rapid Vienna 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Rapid Vienna (65%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rapid Vienna at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Austria Lustenau 60% | Rapid Vienna 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 10% | Draw 24% | Rapid Vienna 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 50% | xG Austria Lustenau 0.77 / Rapid Vienna 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.762 / def 1.438 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.017 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.428 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
2.09
Rapid Vienna xG
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Planet Pure Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs Rapid Vienna?
Austria Lustenau 0 - 5 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Austria Lustenau vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 10% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 65% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Austria Lustenau and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Rapid Vienna?
Record (2 meetings): Austria Lustenau 0W | Draws 2 | Rapid Vienna 0W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and Rapid Vienna in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Austria Lustenau's attack at 0.76x the league average against Rapid Vienna's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (1.02x) against Austria Lustenau's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 2.09.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 1-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
10%
9.77
24%
4.10
65%
1.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
2.86
2.09
Rapid Vienna xG
9.77
10%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.53
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
12%
8.08
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
1%
78.88
30%
3.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 2.09 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs Rapid Vienna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Austria Lustenau come into this having played 41 games, going 11W 12D 18L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rapid Vienna sit at 1.29 PPG from 41 outings (14W 11D 16L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Austria Lustenau against 1.29 for Rapid Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Austria Lustenau's home form reads 5W 5D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Rapid Vienna have taken 1.10 points per game from 20 outings (6W 4D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.59 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 11W 12D 18L in their last 41 games (1.10 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 14W 11D 16L in their last 41 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Rapid Vienna's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 1.00 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rapid Vienna won 0-5 on 7 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Lustenau have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Austria Lustenau
3
Draws
1
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and Rapid Vienna?
From 4 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 0, Rapid Vienna have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2024, when Rapid Vienna 1-1 Austria Lustenau.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 50%, Rapid Vienna 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Austria Lustenau) and 55% (Rapid Vienna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play Rapid Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Austria Lustenau's recent matches and 55% of Rapid Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Lustenau vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 55% of Rapid Vienna's.
Do Austria Lustenau and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rapid Vienna run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Austria Lustenau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat Austria Lustenau 0-5 at Planet Pure Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 0.77 xG and Rapid Vienna 2.09 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Rapid Vienna outscored their 2.09 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 0.76 / defence 1.44 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.02 / defence 0.87, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 10% | Draw 24% | Rapid Vienna 65%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 56%, Rapid Vienna 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Lustenau 1.10 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.