Frosinone 2-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Frosinone welcome Empoli to Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie A (matchday 11). Kick-off is Monday 6 November 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Frosinone — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Frosinone have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Frosinone are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Empoli stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Empoli's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Frosinone carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Frosinone in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Empoli in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 48% versus Empoli 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 48% | Empoli 35%). Note also that Empoli surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Frosinone recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 2.10 xG and Empoli 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.171 / defence 1.170 | Empoli attack 0.849 / defence 1.356. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.176. Empoli's defence rating of 1.356 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Frosinone's projected output up. Data: built from Frosinone's last 10 games and Empoli's last 48.
Result probabilities: Frosinone 59% | Draw 21% | Empoli 21%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 1.70 | Draw 4.83 | Empoli 4.86. The model has a clear lean to Frosinone (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.10 / 1.17) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Frosinone at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Frosinone's last 10 home games and Empoli's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Frosinone 70% (last 10 home games) | Empoli 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, matchday 11 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Monday 6 November 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 59% | Draw 21% | Empoli 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Frosinone 2.10 / Empoli 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.171 / def 1.170 | Empoli attack 0.849 / def 1.356 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Empoli xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frosinone vs Empoli FAQs
What time does Frosinone vs Empoli kick off?
Frosinone vs Empoli kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Monday 6 November 2023 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Empoli?
Frosinone 2 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Frosinone vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Empoli part of?
Frosinone vs Empoli is a Serie A fixture (matchday 11) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 59% chance of winning, Empoli a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Frosinone and Empoli will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Frosinone vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Frosinone's attack at 1.17x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Frosinone's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Frosinone's last 10 games and Empoli's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
59%
1.70
21%
4.83
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Frosinone xG
Total xG
3.27
1.17
Empoli xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
12%
8.16
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
3%
39.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frosinone vs Empoli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.17 for Empoli, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Empoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Frosinone have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 27W 11D 10L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Empoli's form line: 12W 14D 22L from 48 games, 1.04 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Frosinone are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Empoli.
Venue Form
On home soil, Frosinone have posted 2.26 PPG from their last 23 home games (16W 4D 3L).
On the road, Empoli have gone 3W 9D 11L from their last 23 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Frosinone are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.83 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Empoli
Blended
Frosinone (Home) vs Empoli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Frosinone
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frosinone vs Empoli Form FAQs
What form are Frosinone and Empoli in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 27W 11D 10L in their last 48 games (1.92 PPG), while Empoli have gone 12W 14D 22L in their last 48 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Empoli away?
Frosinone's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 2.26 PPG; Empoli away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Frosinone or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Frosinone have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Empoli in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. They cover more than one competition — Serie A, Serie B. The most recent was on 20 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Frosinone's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Frosinone
3
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frosinone vs Empoli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Empoli?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Frosinone have won 1, Empoli have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Empoli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 February 2026: Frosinone 2-2 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Empoli?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 44%, Empoli 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Frosinone) and 35% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Frosinone keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Empoli in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frosinone vs Empoli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Frosinone and Empoli matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Frosinone's recent matches and 48% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Frosinone and Empoli matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Frosinone's recent games and 35% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Empoli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Frosinone's recent matches and 74% of Empoli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Empoli 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Empoli 2-1 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 2.10 xG and Empoli 1.17 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.17 / defence 1.17 against Empoli attack 0.85 / defence 1.36, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 59% | Draw 21% | Empoli 21%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 48%, Empoli 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Empoli's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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