1. FC Magdeburg 1-0 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC St. Pauli (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as 1. FC Magdeburg face FC St. Pauli.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees FC St. Pauli travel to MDCC-Arena to take on 1. FC Magdeburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Magdeburg's home record at MDCC-Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC St. Pauli — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. FC St. Pauli's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of 1. FC Magdeburg's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for 1. FC Magdeburg, 2 for FC St. Pauli and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
1. FC Magdeburg trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
FC St. Pauli trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Magdeburg 63% and FC St. Pauli 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 59% | FC St. Pauli 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.43 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.018 / defence 0.985 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.124 / defence 0.847. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.420. Data: 54 1. FC Magdeburg games / 54 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 35% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 41%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | FC St. Pauli 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Magdeburg 90% | FC St. Pauli 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: MDCC-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 35% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.43 / FC St. Pauli 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.018 / def 0.985 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.124 / def 0.847 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.57
FC St. Pauli xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at MDCC-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli?
1. FC Magdeburg 1 - 0 FC St. Pauli.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at MDCC-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 35% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and FC St. Pauli?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 0W | Draws 1 | FC St. Pauli 2W.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and FC St. Pauli in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Magdeburg's attack rating (1.02) and FC St. Pauli's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus 1. FC Magdeburg's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
35%
2.89
25%
4.07
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
3.00
1.57
FC St. Pauli xG
2.89
35%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
21%
4.82
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
7%
13.92
10%
10.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.2 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.57 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, 1. FC Magdeburg have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 18W 13D 23L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli's form line: 27W 19D 8L from 54 games, 1.85 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC St. Pauli are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1. FC Magdeburg.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 1.42 PPG from 26 outings (10W 7D 9L).
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 12W 7D 7L from 26 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.72 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 18W 13D 23L in their last 54 games (1.24 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 27W 19D 8L in their last 54 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or FC St. Pauli away?
FC St. Pauli's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.42 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.65 PPG.
Have 1. FC Magdeburg or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Magdeburg have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when FC St. Pauli won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Magdeburg's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
1. FC Magdeburg
1
Draws
2
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and FC St. Pauli?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 1, FC St. Pauli have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when 1. FC Magdeburg 1-0 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 65%, FC St. Pauli 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (1. FC Magdeburg) and 62% (FC St. Pauli). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 62% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 62% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Magdeburg defy the odds to beat FC St. Pauli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat FC St. Pauli 1-0 at MDCC-Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.43 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.57 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC St. Pauli landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.02 / defence 0.98 against FC St. Pauli attack 1.12 / defence 0.85, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 35% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 41%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual 1. FC Magdeburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 59%, FC St. Pauli 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Magdeburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.