Sturm Graz 0-1 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Red Bull Salzburg in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 31 March 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sturm Graz have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sturm Graz have posted 6W 3D 1L at Merkur Arena — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merkur Arena.
Red Bull Salzburg (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing away from home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for Sturm Graz, 2.40 for Red Bull Salzburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Red Bull Salzburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 54% versus Red Bull Salzburg 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 49% | Red Bull Salzburg 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.19 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.206 / defence 0.802 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.163 / defence 0.739. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. Red Bull Salzburg's defence strength of 0.739 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Sturm Graz games / 44 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 40% | Draw 32% | Red Bull Salzburg 28%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Red Bull Salzburg 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 40% | Red Bull Salzburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 40% | Draw 32% | Red Bull Salzburg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Sturm Graz 1.19 / Red Bull Salzburg 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.206 / def 0.802 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.163 / def 0.739 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Red Bull Salzburg xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Sturm Graz 0 - 1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 40% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Red Bull Salzburg's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Red Bull Salzburg's attack (1.16x) against Sturm Graz's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
40%
2.48
32%
3.11
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.14
0.94
Red Bull Salzburg xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
8%
11.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.94 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 34W 13D 8L from 55 games, a 2.09 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg, meanwhile, have gone 39W 13D 3L across 55 games — 2.36 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.09 PPG for Sturm Graz against 2.36 for Red Bull Salzburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 19W 4D 4L from 27 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record stands at 20W 6D 1L across 27 trips, a 2.44 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.13 scored and 0.64 conceded. Red Bull Salzburg's attacking output running into Sturm Graz's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Red Bull Salzburg in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 34W 13D 8L in their last 55 games (2.09 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 39W 13D 3L in their last 55 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.26 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.44 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 5-0 on 6 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Red Bull Salzburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sturm Graz
4
Draws
2
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 4, Red Bull Salzburg have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 48%, Red Bull Salzburg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sturm Graz) and 52% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Red Bull Salzburg in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Red Bull Salzburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 48% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 52% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Red Bull Salzburg defy the odds to beat Sturm Graz 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat Sturm Graz 0-1 at Merkur Arena, Championship Round - 2, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.19 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 0.94 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sturm Graz fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.21 / defence 0.80 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.16 / defence 0.74, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 40% | Draw 32% | Red Bull Salzburg 28%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Red Bull Salzburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 49%, Red Bull Salzburg 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 2.09 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 2.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Red Bull Salzburg win broke the near-deadlock. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.