Austria Klagenfurt 0-4 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (40%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Austria Klagenfurt face Sturm Graz.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
28 Black Arena plays host to Austria Klagenfurt versus Sturm Graz in Bundesliga (Championship Round - 1). Kick-off: Sunday 17 March 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Current Form
Austria Klagenfurt's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Austria Klagenfurt at home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sturm Graz (all games): 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Sturm Graz have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Sturm Graz are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Austria Klagenfurt's last 10 home games and Sturm Graz's last 10 away games) — Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sturm Graz in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Sturm Graz have the stronger record — 4 wins to Austria Klagenfurt's 1, with 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended Austria Klagenfurt 0–3 Sturm Graz — a Sturm Graz win.
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Klagenfurt — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Sturm Graz — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Klagenfurt 57% versus Sturm Graz 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 61% | Sturm Graz 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.04 xG and Sturm Graz 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.987 / defence 1.038 | Sturm Graz attack 1.201 / defence 0.789. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. Sturm Graz bring a tight defence (rating 0.789, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Austria Klagenfurt's projected output down. Sturm Graz have an above-average attack rating of 1.201, which lifts their away xG to 1.26. Data: built from Austria Klagenfurt's last 44 games and Sturm Graz's last 44.
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 29% | Draw 31% | Sturm Graz 40%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 3.43 | Draw 3.24 | Sturm Graz 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Austria Klagenfurt 60% (last 10 home games) | Sturm Graz 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: 28 Black Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 March 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 29% | Draw 31% | Sturm Graz 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.04 / Sturm Graz 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.987 / def 1.038 | Sturm Graz attack 1.201 / def 0.789 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Sturm Graz xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz FAQs
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 17 March 2024 at 28 Black Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz?
Austria Klagenfurt 0 - 4 Sturm Graz.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at 28 Black Arena.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Round - 1) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 29% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Austria Klagenfurt's attack at 0.99x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.20x) against Austria Klagenfurt's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Austria Klagenfurt's last 44 games and Sturm Graz's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
29%
3.43
31%
3.24
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
2.30
1.26
Sturm Graz xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
8%
12.13
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.26 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Austria Klagenfurt have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 19W 15D 20L record — D-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Sturm Graz's form line: 33W 13D 8L from 54 games, 2.07 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Austria Klagenfurt.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 1.22 PPG from their last 27 home games (8W 9D 10L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 14W 9D 4L from their last 27 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.74 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt (Home) vs Sturm Graz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz Form FAQs
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 19W 15D 20L in their last 54 games (1.33 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 33W 13D 8L in their last 54 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.22 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Austria Klagenfurt or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Klagenfurt have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 23 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sturm Graz have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won Sturm Graz 7-0 Austria Klagenfurt on 23 Nov 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 0W 0D 5L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Austria Klagenfurt
1
Draws
8
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Austria Klagenfurt have won 1, Sturm Graz have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 November 2024: Sturm Graz 7-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Klagenfurt 52%, Sturm Graz 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Austria Klagenfurt) and 44% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz in 37%; Austria Klagenfurt have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Austria Klagenfurt's games and 63% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent games and 44% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent matches and 70% of Sturm Graz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sturm Graz run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Austria Klagenfurt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Austria Klagenfurt 0-4 at 28 Black Arena, Championship Round - 1, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.04 xG and Sturm Graz 1.26 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.26 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.99 / defence 1.04 against Sturm Graz attack 1.20 / defence 0.79, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 29% | Draw 31% | Sturm Graz 40%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 61%, Sturm Graz 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.