Lask Linz 1-0 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lask Linz face Austria Klagenfurt.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Austria Klagenfurt travel to Raiffeisen Arena to take on Lask Linz in Bundesliga (Championship Round - 2). The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Lask Linz have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Lask Linz are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Austria Klagenfurt stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Austria Klagenfurt's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lask Linz 1.10 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Lask Linz's 20% BTTS rate and Austria Klagenfurt's 30% (from Lask Linz's last 10 home games and Austria Klagenfurt's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Lask Linz have won 2, Austria Klagenfurt 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Feb 2024, ended Lask Linz 2–2 Austria Klagenfurt — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lask Linz trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Austria Klagenfurt trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 54% versus Austria Klagenfurt 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 40% | Austria Klagenfurt 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.05 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.865 / defence 0.948 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.030 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. Data: built from Lask Linz's last 44 games and Austria Klagenfurt's last 44.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 35% | Draw 33% | Austria Klagenfurt 32%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.86 | Draw 3.00 | Austria Klagenfurt 3.15. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lask Linz are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Lask Linz's last 10 home games and Austria Klagenfurt's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lask Linz 20% (last 10 home games) | Austria Klagenfurt 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 35% | Draw 33% | Austria Klagenfurt 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Lask Linz 1.05 / Austria Klagenfurt 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.865 / def 0.948 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.030 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Austria Klagenfurt xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt FAQs
What time does Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Lask Linz 1 - 0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Round - 2) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 35% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lask Linz's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Austria Klagenfurt's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Klagenfurt's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lask Linz's last 44 games and Austria Klagenfurt's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
35%
2.86
33%
3.00
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.04
0.99
Austria Klagenfurt xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
11%
9.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Lask Linz and 0.99 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 23W 21D 11L record — D-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Austria Klagenfurt's form line: 19W 15D 21L from 55 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.64 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 1.89 PPG from their last 27 home games (15W 6D 6L).
On the road, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 11W 6D 10L from their last 27 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.35 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
Lask Linz (Home) vs Austria Klagenfurt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lask Linz
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
❓ Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt Form FAQs
What form are Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 23W 21D 11L in their last 55 games (1.64 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 19W 15D 21L in their last 55 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.89 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from April 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 26 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Lask Linz have won each of the latest 6 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Apr 2025, when Lask Linz won Lask Linz 6-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Austria Klagenfurt specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Lask Linz
2
Draws
0
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lask Linz have won 8, Austria Klagenfurt have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 April 2025: Lask Linz 6-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 52%, Austria Klagenfurt 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Lask Linz and 74% for Austria Klagenfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 63% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lask Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Lask Linz's games and 63% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Lask Linz's matches and 74% of Austria Klagenfurt's.
Do Lask Linz and Austria Klagenfurt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 78% of Austria Klagenfurt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lask Linz edge out Austria Klagenfurt 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Austria Klagenfurt 1-0 at Raiffeisen Arena, Championship Round - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.05 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 0.99 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Austria Klagenfurt landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.86 / defence 0.95 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.03 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 35% | Draw 33% | Austria Klagenfurt 32%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 40%, Austria Klagenfurt 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.64 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.