Sturm Graz 1-0 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sturm Graz host Lask Linz at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sturm Graz have posted 6W 2D 2L at Merkur Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lask Linz stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On current form, Sturm Graz have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sturm Graz, 1 for Lask Linz and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 1–3 with Lask Linz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sturm Graz trading profile (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Lask Linz trading profile (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 54% versus Lask Linz 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 48% | Lask Linz 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.29 xG and Lask Linz 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.199 / defence 0.810 | Lask Linz attack 0.917 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. Data: 44 Sturm Graz games / 44 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 48% | Draw 32% | Lask Linz 20%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Lask Linz 5.00. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 40% | Lask Linz 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 48% | Draw 32% | Lask Linz 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Sturm Graz 1.29 / Lask Linz 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.199 / def 0.810 | Lask Linz attack 0.917 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Lask Linz xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Sturm Graz 1 - 0 Lask Linz.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz part of?
Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 48% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Sturm Graz and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz?
Record (2 meetings): Sturm Graz 1W | Draws 0 | Lask Linz 1W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Lask Linz in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Lask Linz (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Lask Linz's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
48%
2.09
32%
3.16
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.04
0.75
Lask Linz xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
6%
17.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 9.8 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.6 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.75 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sturm Graz come into this having played 56 games, going 34W 13D 9L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lask Linz sit at 1.66 PPG from 56 outings (24W 21D 11L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sturm Graz on 2.05 PPG, Lask Linz on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sturm Graz's home form reads 19W 4D 5L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Lask Linz have taken 1.39 points per game from 28 outings (8W 15D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.45 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 34W 13D 9L in their last 56 games (2.05 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 24W 21D 11L in their last 56 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Lask Linz away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.18 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
2
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 5, Lask Linz have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Lask Linz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 46%, Lask Linz 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sturm Graz) and 32% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Lask Linz in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Lask Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 57% of Lask Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 32% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out Lask Linz 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Lask Linz 1-0 at Merkur Arena, Championship Round - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.29 xG and Lask Linz 0.75 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.20 / defence 0.81 against Lask Linz attack 0.92 / defence 0.80, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 48% | Draw 32% | Lask Linz 20%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 48%, Lask Linz 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lask Linz's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 2.05 PPG, Lask Linz 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sturm Graz win broke the near-deadlock. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.