Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna meet at Red Bull Arena in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Red Bull Salzburg have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's home record at Red Bull Arena: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Rapid Vienna (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Rapid Vienna have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Red Bull Salzburg's favour (2.60 vs 1.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Red Bull Salzburg have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Rapid Vienna in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading Data
Red Bull Salzburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 43% versus Rapid Vienna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 46% | Rapid Vienna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.41 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.387 / defence 0.770 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.189 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. Red Bull Salzburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.387 — their λ of 1.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Rapid Vienna's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Red Bull Salzburg's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Red Bull Salzburg games / 44 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 47% | Draw 30% | Rapid Vienna 23%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Rapid Vienna 4.35. Red Bull Salzburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Red Bull Salzburg at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Red Bull Salzburg 30% | Rapid Vienna 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 47% | Draw 30% | Rapid Vienna 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.41 / Rapid Vienna 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.387 / def 0.770 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.189 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Rapid Vienna xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna?
Red Bull Salzburg 1 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 47% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna in?
Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Red Bull Salzburg's attack rating (1.39) and Rapid Vienna's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (1.19x) against Red Bull Salzburg's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
47%
2.14
30%
3.36
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.34
0.93
Rapid Vienna xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
6%
17.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.6 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 0.93 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Red Bull Salzburg's recent record stands at 40W 13D 3L from 56 games, a 2.38 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 19L across 56 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Red Bull Salzburg by 0.97 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rapid Vienna heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Red Bull Salzburg have managed 19W 7D 2L from 28 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rapid Vienna's away record stands at 11W 6D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.62 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 40W 13D 3L in their last 56 games (2.38 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 21W 16D 19L in their last 56 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.29 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Rapid Vienna have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Red Bull Salzburg
2
Draws
5
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 3, Rapid Vienna have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Rapid Vienna 1-0 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 39%, Rapid Vienna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 50% (Rapid Vienna).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Rapid Vienna in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play Rapid Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 50% of Rapid Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent games and 50% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Red Bull Salzburg have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Red Bull Arena, Championship Round - 3, as Red Bull Salzburg and Rapid Vienna drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.41 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.93 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.39 / defence 0.77 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.19 / defence 0.76, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 47% | Draw 30% | Rapid Vienna 23%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 46%, Rapid Vienna 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.