Lausanne 0-2 FC Luzern – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lausanne at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lausanne vs FC Luzern encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Luzern make the trip to Stade de la Tuilière to face Lausanne in Super League (Relegation Round - 3). The match kicks off on Wednesday 15 May 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form
Lausanne (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Lausanne have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Luzern have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, FC Luzern have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Lausanne's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of FC Luzern's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Lausanne half-time and goal-timing data (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
FC Luzern half-time and goal-timing data (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 63% and FC Luzern 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 57% | FC Luzern 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lausanne surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while FC Luzern have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that FC Luzern surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Lausanne recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.63 xG and FC Luzern 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.993 / defence 1.042 | FC Luzern attack 1.036 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.108. Data: built from Lausanne's last 33 games and FC Luzern's last 69.
Result probabilities: Lausanne 48% | Draw 24% | FC Luzern 28%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.10 | Draw 4.09 | FC Luzern 3.58. Lausanne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lausanne as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lausanne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lausanne 40% (last 10 home games) | FC Luzern 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC Luzern | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 May 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 48% | Draw 24% | FC Luzern 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Lausanne 1.63 / FC Luzern 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.993 / def 1.042 | FC Luzern attack 1.036 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.20
FC Luzern xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lausanne vs FC Luzern FAQs
What time does Lausanne vs FC Luzern kick off?
Lausanne vs FC Luzern kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Wednesday 15 May 2024 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC Luzern?
Lausanne 0 - 2 FC Luzern.
Where is Lausanne vs FC Luzern being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC Luzern part of?
Lausanne vs FC Luzern is a Super League fixture (Relegation Round - 3) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC Luzern?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 48% chance of winning, FC Luzern a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Luzern?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lausanne and FC Luzern will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lausanne vs FC Luzern have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lausanne's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against FC Luzern's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — FC Luzern's attack (1.04x) against Lausanne's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from Lausanne's last 33 games and FC Luzern's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
48%
2.10
24%
4.09
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Lausanne xG
Total xG
2.83
1.20
FC Luzern xG
2.10
48%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
5%
18.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.5 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lausanne vs FC Luzern Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC Luzern?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC Luzern expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.20 for FC Luzern, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC Luzern?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Lausanne have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 10W 11D 14L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
FC Luzern's form line: 12W 10D 13L from 35 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Lausanne against 1.31 for FC Luzern. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lausanne have posted 1.59 PPG from their last 17 home games (7W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Lausanne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Luzern have gone 3W 5D 9L from their last 17 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Luzern's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lausanne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lausanne are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; FC Luzern are on 1.23 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; FC Luzern in 63%.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Current Season
FC Luzern
Current Season
Lausanne (Home) vs FC Luzern (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lausanne
Current Season
FC Luzern
Current Season
❓ Lausanne vs FC Luzern Form FAQs
What form are Lausanne and FC Luzern in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 10W 11D 14L in their last 35 games (1.17 PPG), while FC Luzern have gone 12W 10D 13L in their last 35 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC Luzern away?
Lausanne's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.59 PPG; FC Luzern away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: FC Luzern have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Luzern won Lausanne 0-4 FC Luzern on 21 Dec 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lausanne have gone 0W 1D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Luzern — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Lausanne
4
Draws
6
FC Luzern
Recent Meetings
❓ Lausanne vs FC Luzern H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Luzern?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lausanne have won 0, FC Luzern have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC Luzern last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: FC Luzern 1-0 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC Luzern?
FC Luzern have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
FC Luzern see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 53%, FC Luzern 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Lausanne) and 53% (FC Luzern).
On the defensive side: Lausanne keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC Luzern away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lausanne vs FC Luzern Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lausanne and FC Luzern matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Lausanne's games and 71% of FC Luzern's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lausanne and FC Luzern matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Lausanne's recent games and 53% of FC Luzern's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and FC Luzern matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Lausanne's recent matches and 47% of FC Luzern's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Luzern cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Lausanne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Luzern beat Lausanne 0-2 at Stade de la Tuilière, Relegation Round - 3, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.63 xG and FC Luzern 1.20 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Lausanne fell 1.6 short of their projected output. FC Luzern outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.99 / defence 1.04 against FC Luzern attack 1.04 / defence 1.13, drawn from 33/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 48% | Draw 24% | FC Luzern 28%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual FC Luzern win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 57%, FC Luzern 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Luzern's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.17 PPG, FC Luzern 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Luzern win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Luzern (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.