Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0-4 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Relegation Round - 4 sees Lausanne travel to Stade Olympique de la Pontaise to take on Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 May 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lausanne — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Super League this season, Lausanne have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.00 PPG, Lausanne 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Lausanne in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, 1 for Lausanne and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lausanne trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 64% and Lausanne 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 64% | Lausanne 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.10 xG and Lausanne 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.666 / defence 1.449 | Lausanne attack 0.816 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.108. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack strength of 0.666 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy games / 33 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 31% | Draw 27% | Lausanne 41%. Fair-value odds: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Lausanne 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lausanne as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lausanne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 70% | Lausanne 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Stade Olympique de la Pontaise • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 31% | Draw 27% | Lausanne 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.10 / Lausanne 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.666 / def 1.449 | Lausanne attack 0.816 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Lausanne xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne kick off?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise.
What was the final score in Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0 - 4 Lausanne.
Where is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise.
What competition is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne part of?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 31% chance of winning, Lausanne a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne?
Record (3 meetings): Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0W | Draws 2 | Lausanne 1W.
What form are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne in?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Lausanne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack at 0.67x the league average against Lausanne's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
31%
3.20
27%
3.65
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
Total xG
2.41
1.31
Lausanne xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
8%
11.84
14%
7.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 1.31 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy come into this having played 36 games, going 6W 8D 22L for 0.72 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Lausanne sit at 1.14 PPG from 36 outings (10W 11D 15L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five.
Lausanne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's home form reads 3W 6D 9L across 18 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Lausanne have taken 0.78 points per game from 18 outings (3W 5D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.22 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Lausanne in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Current Season
Lausanne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne in coming into this match?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 6W 8D 22L in their last 36 games (0.72 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 10W 11D 15L in their last 36 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home or Lausanne away?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at home: 0.83 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2024, when Lausanne won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
2
Draws
2
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne?
From 4 meetings on record, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have won 0, Lausanne have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0-4 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 72%, Lausanne at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and 72% for Lausanne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stade Lausanne-Ouchy home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stade Lausanne-Ouchy play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's games and 72% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stade Lausanne-Ouchy vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's matches and 72% of Lausanne's.
Do Stade Lausanne-Ouchy and Lausanne tend to score early?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lausanne run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0-4 at Stade Olympique de la Pontaise, Relegation Round - 4, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.10 xG and Lausanne 1.31 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Lausanne outscored their 1.31 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.67 / defence 1.45 against Lausanne attack 0.82 / defence 1.14, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 31% | Draw 27% | Lausanne 41%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 64%, Lausanne 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lausanne's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lausanne arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.72. That form edge translated into the three points. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.