FC Basel 1893 2-0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Basel 1893 vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy make the trip to St. Jakob-Park to face FC Basel 1893 in Super League, Relegation Round - 3. The match kicks off on Tuesday 14 May 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Basel 1893 have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Basel 1893's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at St. Jakob-Park this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for FC Basel 1893, 1.10 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: FC Basel 1893 1W, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with FC Basel 1893 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FC Basel 1893 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Basel 1893 60% and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 54% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.60 xG and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.932 / defence 1.022 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.885 / defence 1.185. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.107. Data: 69 FC Basel 1893 games / 33 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 51% | Draw 25% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 24%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 4.17. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 50% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 May 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 51% | Draw 25% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.60 / Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.932 / def 1.022 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.885 / def 1.185 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 14 May 2024 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
FC Basel 1893 2 - 0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 51% chance of winning, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Record (3 meetings): FC Basel 1893 1W | Draws 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1W.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Basel 1893's attack at 0.93x the league average against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's attack (0.89x) against FC Basel 1893's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 69/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
51%
1.95
25%
4.00
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
2.60
1.00
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
5%
21.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.00 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Basel 1893 come into this having played 37 games, going 12W 10D 15L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy sit at 0.86 PPG from 37 outings (8W 8D 21L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for FC Basel 1893 against 0.86 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Basel 1893's home form reads 7W 5D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have taken 0.78 points per game from 18 outings (4W 2D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are on 1.19 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 65%.
Last 37 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Current Season
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 12W 10D 15L in their last 37 games (1.24 PPG), while Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have gone 8W 8D 21L in their last 37 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.44 PPG; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: FC Basel 1893 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy won 0-3 on 1 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Basel 1893 have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC Basel 1893
1
Draws
1
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
From 4 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2024, when FC Basel 1893 2-0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Basel 1893 61%, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Basel 1893) and 67% (Stade Lausanne-Ouchy). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play Stade Lausanne-Ouchy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of FC Basel 1893's games and 56% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Basel 1893's matches and 67% of Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's.
Do FC Basel 1893 and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Basel 1893 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2-0 at St. Jakob-Park, Relegation Round - 3, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.60 xG and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.00 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 0.93 / defence 1.02 against Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.89 / defence 1.19, drawn from 69/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 51% | Draw 25% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 24%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 54%, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.24 PPG, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.