Union Berlin 1-5 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 38%, yet the head-to-head data favours Bayern München — this Union Berlin vs Bayern München fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bayern München travel to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to take on Union Berlin in Bundesliga (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Union Berlin have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Union Berlin have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Union Berlin are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Bayern München — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bayern München away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Union Berlin) versus 1.60 (Bayern München). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Bayern München have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Union Berlin.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Jan 2024, ended Union Berlin 0–1 Bayern München — a Bayern München win.
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Union Berlin trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Bayern München trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 41% versus Bayern München 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 46% | Bayern München 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.69 xG and Bayern München 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.802 / defence 0.914 | Bayern München attack 1.345 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.373. Bayern München's defence rating of 1.265 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Union Berlin's projected output up. Bayern München have an above-average attack rating of 1.345, which lifts their away xG to 1.69. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 63 games and Bayern München's last 63.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 38% | Draw 25% | Bayern München 38%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.66 | Draw 4.02 | Bayern München 2.66. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 38% to win, with the draw at 25%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.69 / 1.69) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Union Berlin 38% and Bayern München 38%, with the draw at 25%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 3.38 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Union Berlin's last 10 home games and Bayern München's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 40% (last 10 home games) | Bayern München 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 38% | Draw 25% | Bayern München 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Union Berlin 1.69 / Bayern München 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.802 / def 0.914 | Bayern München attack 1.345 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Union Berlin and Bayern München level at 38% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Bayern München xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayern München FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs Bayern München kick off?
Union Berlin vs Bayern München kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Union Berlin 1 - 5 Bayern München.
Where is Union Berlin vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Bayern München part of?
Union Berlin vs Bayern München is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 30) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 38% chance of winning, Bayern München a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Union Berlin and Bayern München will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union Berlin vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Bayern München's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus Union Berlin's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 63 games and Bayern München's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
38%
2.66
25%
4.02
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
3.38
1.69
Bayern München xG
2.66
38%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
7%
14.39
7%
14.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 9.7 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayern München Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.69 for Bayern München, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Bayern München?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 26W 13D 24L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Bayern München's form line: 41W 11D 11L from 63 games, 2.13 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.90 PPG from their last 31 home games (17W 8D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bayern München have gone 18W 5D 8L from their last 31 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Union Berlin are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 2.76 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayern München in 60%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Current Season
Bayern München
Current Season
Union Berlin (Home) vs Bayern München (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Current Season
Bayern München
Current Season
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayern München Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and Bayern München in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 26W 13D 24L in their last 63 games (1.44 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 41W 11D 11L in their last 63 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Bayern München away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.90 PPG; Bayern München away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or Bayern München been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Bayern München in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Bayern München have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Sep 2026, when Bayern München won Bayern München 7-0 Union Berlin.
Union Berlin's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Union Berlin
3
Draws
7
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayern München H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayern München?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 0, Bayern München have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Bayern München last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Bayern München 7-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 45%, Bayern München 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Union Berlin and 77% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Union Berlin have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayern München Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and Bayern München matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Union Berlin's games and 71% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union Berlin and Bayern München matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Union Berlin's matches and 77% of Bayern München's.
Do Union Berlin and Bayern München matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 90% of Bayern München's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayern München run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat Union Berlin 1-5 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.69 xG and Bayern München 1.69 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Bayern München outscored their 1.69 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.80 / defence 0.91 against Bayern München attack 1.34 / defence 1.26, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 38% | Draw 25% | Bayern München 38%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bayern München win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 46%, Bayern München 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Bayern München's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayern München (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.32 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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