Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Borussia Dortmund welcome Bayer Leverkusen to BVB Stadion Dortmund in Bundesliga (matchday 30). Kick-off is Sunday 21 April 2024 at 17:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Borussia Dortmund have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

In front of their own supporters, Borussia Dortmund have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Bayer Leverkusen — last 10 games: 10W 0D 0L — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing away from home: 9W 1D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bayer Leverkusen — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 2.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Borussia Dortmund have won 3, Bayer Leverkusen 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended Borussia Dortmund 1–1 Bayer Leverkusen — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 31 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

Bayer Leverkusen in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 59% versus Bayer Leverkusen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Dortmund 65% | Bayer Leverkusen 68%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Borussia Dortmund surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Bayer Leverkusen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.24 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.070 / defence 1.009 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.196 / defence 0.693. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.394. Bayer Leverkusen bring a tight defence (rating 0.693, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Borussia Dortmund's projected output down. Data: built from Borussia Dortmund's last 63 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 63.

Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 27% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 47%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 3.71 | Draw 3.79 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.14. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Borussia Dortmund's last 10 home games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Borussia Dortmund 60% (last 10 home games) | Bayer Leverkusen 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights