Werder Bremen 2-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours VfB Stuttgart (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Werder Bremen face VfB Stuttgart.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfB Stuttgart make the trip to wohninvest WESERSTADION to face Werder Bremen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Werder Bremen (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Werder Bremen at wohninvest WESERSTADION this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VfB Stuttgart have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, VfB Stuttgart are the stronger side — 1.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Werder Bremen lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Werder Bremen half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
VfB Stuttgart half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 64% and VfB Stuttgart 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Werder Bremen 62% | VfB Stuttgart 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.15 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.852 / defence 1.086 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.086 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.400. Data: 63 Werder Bremen games / 63 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 25% | Draw 27% | VfB Stuttgart 48%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | VfB Stuttgart 2.08. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VfB Stuttgart at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 60% | VfB Stuttgart 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 25% | Draw 27% | VfB Stuttgart 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Werder Bremen 1.15 / VfB Stuttgart 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.852 / def 1.086 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.086 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.65
VfB Stuttgart xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Werder Bremen 2 - 1 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 25% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (5 meetings): Werder Bremen 1W | Draws 1 | VfB Stuttgart 3W.
What form are Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 0.85x the league average against VfB Stuttgart's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (1.09x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
25%
3.93
27%
3.73
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.80
1.65
VfB Stuttgart xG
3.93
25%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
5%
20.50
15%
6.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.65 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Werder Bremen come into this having played 63 games, going 18W 13D 32L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 1.59 PPG from 63 outings (29W 13D 21L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
VfB Stuttgart carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Werder Bremen's home form reads 10W 5D 16L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 1.32 points per game from 31 outings (12W 5D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.83 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 63%.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Current Season
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 18W 13D 32L in their last 63 games (1.06 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 29W 13D 21L in their last 63 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
VfB Stuttgart's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.13 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 0-4 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Werder Bremen have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Werder Bremen
3
Draws
4
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 3, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 64%, VfB Stuttgart 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Werder Bremen and 74% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Werder Bremen's games and 64% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Werder Bremen vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Werder Bremen's matches and 74% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Werder Bremen defy the odds to beat VfB Stuttgart 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat VfB Stuttgart 2-1 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.15 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.65 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Werder Bremen beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.85 / defence 1.09 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.09 / defence 0.82, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 25% | Draw 27% | VfB Stuttgart 48%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Werder Bremen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 62%, VfB Stuttgart 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Werder Bremen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.