Eintracht Frankfurt 3-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 41%, yet in-form FC Augsburg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt host FC Augsburg at Frankfurt Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 19 April 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 4W 5D 1L at Frankfurt Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at Frankfurt Arena than their overall form suggests.
FC Augsburg — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Augsburg's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Augsburg — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Eintracht Frankfurt register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, FC Augsburg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 1, FC Augsburg 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with FC Augsburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
FC Augsburg trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 65% and FC Augsburg 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 59% | FC Augsburg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.53 xG and FC Augsburg 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.920 / defence 0.864 | FC Augsburg attack 1.108 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.370. Data: 63 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 63 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 41% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 31%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | FC Augsburg 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Augsburg (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 80% | FC Augsburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Frankfurt Arena • Kick-off: Friday 19 Apr 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 41% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.53 / FC Augsburg 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.920 / def 0.864 | FC Augsburg attack 1.108 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.657 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.31
FC Augsburg xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 19 April 2024 at Frankfurt Arena.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt 3 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Frankfurt Arena.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 41% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg?
Record (5 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 1W | Draws 3 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Eintracht Frankfurt's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
41%
2.44
28%
3.57
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.85
1.31
FC Augsburg xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
11%
9.06
7%
14.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.31 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 63 games, going 23W 23D 17L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.16 PPG from 63 outings (19W 16D 28L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.46 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 15W 12D 4L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.87 points per game from 31 outings (7W 6D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.41 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 65%.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Current Season
FC Augsburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 23W 23D 17L in their last 63 games (1.46 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 19W 16D 28L in their last 63 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or FC Augsburg away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.84 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
6
Draws
1
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, FC Augsburg have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when FC Augsburg 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 61%, FC Augsburg 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 64% (FC Augsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 68% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 64% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Frankfurt cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat FC Augsburg 3-1 at Frankfurt Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.53 xG and FC Augsburg 1.31 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Eintracht Frankfurt beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.92 / defence 0.86 against FC Augsburg attack 1.11 / defence 1.01, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 41% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 31%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 59%, FC Augsburg 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.46 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.