Eintracht Frankfurt 3-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 41%, yet in-form FC Augsburg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Eintracht Frankfurt host FC Augsburg at Frankfurt Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 30). Kick-off is Friday 19 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

FC Augsburg — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

FC Augsburg's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Augsburg — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 60% of FC Augsburg's (from Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1 for FC Augsburg and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended Eintracht Frankfurt 1–2 FC Augsburg — a FC Augsburg win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

FC Augsburg trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 94% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 65% and FC Augsburg 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 59% | FC Augsburg 57%). Note also that FC Augsburg surrender HT leads in 46% of cases while Eintracht Frankfurt recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.53 xG and FC Augsburg 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.920 / defence 0.864 | FC Augsburg attack 1.108 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.657 / away 1.370. Data: built from Eintracht Frankfurt's last 63 games and FC Augsburg's last 63.

Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 41% | Draw 28% | FC Augsburg 31%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | FC Augsburg 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Augsburg (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 home games and FC Augsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Eintracht Frankfurt 80% (last 10 home games) | FC Augsburg 60% (last 10 away games).

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