Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 31 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome Union Berlin to BORUSSIA-PARK. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 April 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 4W 3D 3L at BORUSSIA-PARK — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at BORUSSIA-PARK than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.00 PPG, Union Berlin 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Union Berlin, who boast 5 victories compared to 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 1–3 with Union Berlin winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Union Berlin have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Union Berlin trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 67% versus Union Berlin 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | Union Berlin 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.47 xG and Union Berlin 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.039 / defence 1.212 | Union Berlin attack 0.550 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.418. Data: 64 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 64 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 48% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 22%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Union Berlin 4.55. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | Union Berlin 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 48% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.47 / Union Berlin 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.039 / def 1.212 | Union Berlin attack 0.550 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Union Berlin xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 48% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin?
Record (5 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W | Draws 0 | Union Berlin 5W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack at 1.04x the league average against Union Berlin's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
48%
2.10
30%
3.35
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.42
0.94
Union Berlin xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
5%
19.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 0.94 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 18W 20D 26L from 64 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 26W 13D 25L across 64 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.16 PPG, Union Berlin on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 15W 7D 10L from 32 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Borussia Mönchengladbach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 9W 5D 18L across 32 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.20 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Current Season
Union Berlin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 18W 20D 26L in their last 64 games (1.16 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 26W 13D 25L in their last 64 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Union Berlin away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.62 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
6
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, Union Berlin have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 56%, Union Berlin 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 44% (Union Berlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 38% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 44% of Union Berlin's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Borussia Mönchengladbach's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin finished level at 0-0 at BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.47 xG and Union Berlin 0.94 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Union Berlin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.04 / defence 1.21 against Union Berlin attack 0.55 / defence 0.85, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 48% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 22%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 70%, Union Berlin 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Union Berlin's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.16 PPG, Union Berlin 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.