TSV Hartberg 2-2 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Austria Lustenau travel to PROfertil ARENA to take on TSV Hartberg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 July 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. TSV Hartberg haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at PROfertil ARENA this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Lustenau have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Austria Lustenau haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Lustenau have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: TSV Hartberg 1.50 PPG, Austria Lustenau 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Austria Lustenau, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for TSV Hartberg.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2023, ended 1–5 with Austria Lustenau winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Austria Lustenau have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Austria Lustenau in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 53% versus Austria Lustenau 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 59% | Austria Lustenau 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.43 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.016 / defence 1.057 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.936 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.319. Data: 22 TSV Hartberg games / 22 Austria Lustenau games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 38% | Draw 29% | Austria Lustenau 33%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Austria Lustenau 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 60% | Austria Lustenau 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 38% | Draw 29% | Austria Lustenau 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.43 / Austria Lustenau 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.016 / def 1.057 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.936 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Austria Lustenau xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 29 July 2023 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 2 Austria Lustenau.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 38% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau?
Record (4 meetings): TSV Hartberg 0W | Draws 1 | Austria Lustenau 3W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Austria Lustenau's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Lustenau's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
38%
2.62
29%
3.41
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.73
1.31
Austria Lustenau xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
10%
9.68
8%
12.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.31 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, TSV Hartberg have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 9W 6D 17L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. TSV Hartberg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Austria Lustenau's form line: 11W 10D 11L from 32 games, 1.34 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. Austria Lustenau haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.03 PPG, Austria Lustenau on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, TSV Hartberg have posted 1.12 PPG from 16 outings (5W 3D 8L).
On the road, Austria Lustenau have gone 5W 5D 6L from 16 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.56 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Pre-Season
Austria Lustenau
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 9W 6D 17L in their last 32 games (1.03 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 11W 10D 11L in their last 32 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Austria Lustenau away?
Austria Lustenau's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.12 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jun 2023, when Austria Lustenau won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Austria Lustenau specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
3
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau?
From 6 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 1, Austria Lustenau have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2023, when Austria Lustenau 0-4 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau?
Austria Lustenau have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 56%, Austria Lustenau 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (TSV Hartberg) and 56% (Austria Lustenau). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Austria Lustenau?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of TSV Hartberg's games and 56% of Austria Lustenau's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 56% of Austria Lustenau's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 1, as TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.43 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.31 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.02 / defence 1.06 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.94 / defence 1.02, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 38% | Draw 29% | Austria Lustenau 33%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 59%, Austria Lustenau 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.03 PPG, Austria Lustenau 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.