Austria Vienna 0-3 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz meet at Generali Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 July 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Austria Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Austria Vienna haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Generali Arena, Austria Vienna have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Austria Vienna are significantly better at Generali Arena than their overall form suggests.
Sturm Graz (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sturm Graz haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sturm Graz arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sturm Graz in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Austria Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Vienna 72% and Sturm Graz 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Austria Vienna 78% | Sturm Graz 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.28 xG and Sturm Graz 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.091 / defence 0.927 | Sturm Graz attack 1.018 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.483. Data: 22 Austria Vienna games / 22 Sturm Graz games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 33% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 38%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Sturm Graz 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 60% | Sturm Graz 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 33% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Austria Vienna 1.28 / Sturm Graz 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.091 / def 0.927 | Sturm Graz attack 1.018 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Sturm Graz xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 30 July 2023 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Austria Vienna 0 - 3 Sturm Graz.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz part of?
Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 33% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Austria Vienna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Sturm Graz's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.02x) against Austria Vienna's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
33%
3.06
29%
3.41
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.68
1.40
Sturm Graz xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
8%
12.40
11%
9.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.40 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Austria Vienna come into this having played 32 games, going 12W 10D 10L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-W. Austria Vienna haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Sturm Graz sit at 2.06 PPG from 32 outings (20W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. Sturm Graz haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Austria Vienna's home form reads 8W 3D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Sturm Graz have taken 1.81 points per game from 16 outings (8W 5D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.78 scored and 0.91 conceded. Austria Vienna's scoring rate against Sturm Graz's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Pre-Season
Sturm Graz
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 12W 10D 10L in their last 32 games (1.44 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 20W 6D 6L in their last 32 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.69 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Austria Vienna or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 0-3 on 30 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Austria Vienna
3
Draws
2
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 5, Sturm Graz have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Sturm Graz see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 62%, Sturm Graz 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Austria Vienna and 44% for Sturm Graz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 6% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Austria Vienna's games and 62% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Austria Vienna's matches and 44% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sturm Graz run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Austria Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Austria Vienna 0-3 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.28 xG and Sturm Graz 1.40 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Austria Vienna fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.09 / defence 0.93 against Sturm Graz attack 1.02 / defence 0.91, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 33% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 38%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 78%, Sturm Graz 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.44. That form edge translated into the three points. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.